Quick and Easy Way to Guage Splatfest "Winner"

[JonCharles]

Hey guys. I've contemplated whether I should post this or not, but ultimately decided that this would benefit those people who don't care about which splatfest side they are fighting for and want to fight for the "winning" team, aka team snails.

Let me start by saying that using Miiverse and especially polls on this site to guage popularity is extremely futile and inaccurate. The losing side often suffers from "vocal minority syndrome" and can skew the way that people perceive that popularity is going. Many people think that water slide is going to win because they see more Miiverse posts for it, but I can assure you that they are dead wrong. How do I know this? Common sense and an easy secret method. Roller coasters are just far less exclusionary than water slides are in this country, but my reasoning isn't the purpose of this post.

*THE BIG REVEAL*
The super secret and easy method to determine popularity is nothing other than *drum roll*..........................Google. Google Trends to be precise. I read about this method in some other forum that I can't remember, but it would have shown us that dogs would landslide cats in the popularity polls.

Roller Coasters vs Water Slides: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#cmpt=q&q=roller+coaster,+water+slide&geo=US
Dogs vs Cats: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=dog, cat&geo=US&cmpt=q&tz=Etc/GMT+7
Rice vs Bread: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=rice, Bread&geo=JP&cmpt=q&tz=Etc/GMT+4
Kitsune Udon vs Tanuki Soba (just used Kitsune vs Tanuki): https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=kitsune, tanuki&geo=JP&cmpt=q&tz=Etc/GMT+4
Rock vs Pop (UK only): https://www.google.com/trends/explore#geo=GB&cmpt=q&q=rock+music,+pop+music
Eating vs Sleeping (UK only, not sure about accuracy): https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=eating, sleeping&geo=GB&cmpt=q&tz=Etc/GMT+4

The greatest thing is that you can tailor your search to the region of the world that you live in. Dogs are confidently more popular than cats in the US, but the gap between roller coaster and water slide is even greater, and I'm confident that roller coasters will be more popular.

To those that are morally opposed to methods such as this, it is the faulty balancing that Nintendo implemented that is ultimately to blame, even though it's not that big a deal. Maybe using methods like this will push Nintendo to raise the multiplier for victories (3x-5x would be more fair), or outright abolish the popularity multiplier (very unlikely), Either way, outside of doing a national poll, this is probably the least exclusionary method of finding the winning side for splatfest. We will very shortly see if I was right about splatfest, and if this remains a reliable popularity guage. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on this method, and anything else you wish to share.

Edit: Europe is a tough cookie to crack, because there are so many countries and cultures and no EU setting. I'm lazy, so I just used the UK. Take the results with a heavy pinch of salt.

 

[Friendan]

There's only been 1 Splatfest, but we'll see if this is true as more Splatfests happen.

 

[retlaf]

Huge flaw in your theory: demographics. Which do you think would win a splatfest, video games or movies? Let's try google:

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#cmpt=q&q=video+games,+movies&geo=US

oops.

Also, theme parks are more abundant than water parks, further skewing google trends.

 

[JonCharles]

I never said that this was a perfect method. I can't exactly poll every owner of Splatoon. What we are looking for are trends combined with common sense, and as far as I know, playing video games doesn't significantly predispose you to like either roller coasters or water slides more than the other. This method has been reliable thus far, and I expect it to hold.

Eating vs. sleeping is a lot more troublesome, since the multiple cultures of Europe will value different things.

Edit: Forgot to mention, Nintendo knows who their demographic is. They're not likely to pick topics that are going to heavily be skewed to gamers or non-gamers. Cats and dogs is a very neutral topic.

 

[Njok]

First of all UK is definitely not representative for all of europe. No country is.

But honestly, i wish people would just play for fun. If you don't have a preference, choose a colour or something.

 

[Blue24]

Google Trends should not be used to judge popularity.

 

[JonCharles]

Google Trends should not be used to judge popularity.

Then by all means, give us your alternative.

 

[Blue24]

Then by all means, give us your alternative.

There isn't one that I am aware of. But Google Trends is a poor way to go about it as it just goes by search terms for a period of time. If there was some form of cat stampede, Cats searches would rise for a period of time. That doesn't mean Cats are popular. Likewise a person like Justin Beiber has higher trends than Micheal Jackson. Does that mean Beiber is more popular than MJ or is Beiber just in the news more often. My gut says MJ would destroy JB in a Splatfest.

Retlaf already mention other reasons why. Its just not a reliable way to go about it.

 

[GuyPerfect]

I just want the less popular side to win in any Splatfest just to make "popularity contest" crybabies shut up. (-:

 

[JonCharles]

I just want the less popular side to win in any Splatfest just to make "popularity contest" crybabies shut up. (-:

I'd like the underdog team to have a legitimate chance to win too, but at the current moment, it's massively unlikely. Popularity would need to be really close, or one side would need to dominate the other. Unfortunately, no side has ever completely demolished the other, and it's statistically unlikely to happen. (My idea of domination would be something like 55-45, or an even larger gap).

I personally prefer roller coasters to water slides, but I wouldn't like my chances if I picked water slides. I'll be happy to be proven wrong if water slides can fight back against what I perceive as unfavorable odds. I also recognize that my method is much less effective for those in Europe, and I could see eating or sleeping swinging either way.

Finally, I know this method has flaws, but it gives insight into what the country thinks. You can draw whatever conclusions that you want from the results. To me, it says that roller coasters have a massive advantage. I could be proven wrong.

 

[truefire]

Popularity doesn't have a multiplier. Only win% does. Cats only needed a 56% win ratio to make the final results even. And that was with Dogs being more popular by 24%. Considering Cats had a 51% win percentage, I'm just not seeing how popularity cheated them out of anything. Especially since if you want to talk about skewed results. How about all of the good players on Team Dog being forced to fight other Team Dog members due to their popularity (which has no impact on the win ratio), whereas Team Cat--more specifically, the skilled players on Team Cat-- got to strut their stuff at dogs of varying levels of skill all day? But no, it clearly demonstrates that the majority of better players were on Team Cat, and not that the better players on Team Cat had more opportunities to fight the worse players on Team Dog.

The real bs is the Splatfest matchmaking. Please post solutions for that.

 

[Goddess Yami]

I live near two major theme parks. One is a water park and one is an amusement park with a water park. There's also two indoor water parks around my area too. All four parks are always busy. My point? I think the popularity will be close. Because I noticed recently that indoor water parks are becoming a thing. (Not talking about my area) I think most people enjoy both water sildes and rollercoasters.

As for miiverse I think it depends who appears in your plaza. With Cats vs Dogs I had even amount of both team miiverse posts in my plaza. Right now I do see a lot of water sildes in my plaza. But that means nothing.

I just think there's no accurate way of figuring out which side will be more popular. Yeah there are polls but those can be misleading.

Also this is the second Splatfest for NA and EU. We have to more to judge how much popularity effects the results. I understand why Nintendo included it. Because when there are so many people on the same team they have to play each other. The winning of the match doesn't count toward the results. I was on team Dog I played more dog people than cat people. That made me more mad than how they caulate results.

I really hope both teams are even this time.

 

[Blue24]

I live near two major theme parks. One is a water park and one is an amusement park with a water park. There's also two indoor water parks around my area too. All four parks are always busy. My point? I think the popularity will be close. Because I noticed recently that indoor water parks are becoming a thing. (Not talking about my area) I think most people enjoy both water sildes and rollercoasters.

As for miiverse I think it depends who appears in your plaza. With Cats vs Dogs I had even amount of both team miiverse posts in my plaza. Right now I do see a lot of water sildes in my plaza. But that means nothing.

I just think there's no accurate way of figuring out which side will be more popular. Yeah there are polls but those can be misleading.

Also this is the second Splatfest for NA and EU. We have to more to judge how much popularity effects the results. I understand why Nintendo included it. Because when there are so many people on the same team they have to play each other. The winning of the match doesn't count toward the results. I was on team Dog I played more dog people than cat people. That made me more mad than how they caulate results.

I really hope both teams are even this time.

Im doubtful. I don't live near either yet the only time I have been in a water slide is at a fancy hotel. Rollercoaster.. be it Vegas, Disneyland, Knotts, etc, I have memories of coasters. I think ALOT of people fall into this category. I only know of one water park in my state and I never been to it.

 

[Goddess Yami]

It depends on the state but I know a lot theme parks that have water parks both sides are always crowded. While I do think the sides may be even I do believe theres a chance rollarcoasters may have more players. I just don't think there will be a landslide like with Cat vs Dogs. Which is fine with me if that's the case. I rather play against the opposing team instead of my own.

 

[JonCharles]

I didn't get into it previously, but I have some of my own reasons for believing that roller coasters would be more popular.


1. First is the fact that there are many times more roller coasters in the US than water slides, with many states being too cold for them. A lot of younger children will not have even experienced water slides in their lives.

2. A surprisingly large amount of people are afraid of or uncomfortable in water, and this would exclude their votes as well. (Fear of heights would affect both.)

3. Another chunk of people are probably too shy or self-conscious to go to water parks in their swimming getup, which would not be an issue in theme parks. Worrying about sunburn in line and/or freezing while waiting don't help. (My personal pet peeve for water parks).

4. Roller coasters have that extra "cool" factor that water slides can't quite reach. Corkscrews, large loops, insane heights and drops, and absurd speeds help make roller coasters more diverse and sound "cooler" on paper. Again, this will probably have the greatest effect on the younger audience.

5. We have a tendency to forget how many young children play this game. Admittedly, they tend to lose games more, so...


Just a few of my personal reasons why I believe what I do. These are based on my own logic and experiences, so I don't expect or even encourage anyone to take it up as gospel. Just food for thought.

 

[DonkaFjord]

Popularity doesn't have a multiplier. Only win% does. Cats only needed a 56% win ratio to make the final results even. And that was with Dogs being more popular by 24%. Considering Cats had a 51% win percentage, I'm just not seeing how popularity cheated them out of anything. Especially since if you want to talk about skewed results. How about all of the good players on Team Dog being forced to fight other Team Dog members due to their popularity (which has no impact on the win ratio), whereas Team Cat--more specifically, the skilled players on Team Cat-- got to strut their stuff at dogs of varying levels of skill all day? But no, it clearly demonstrates that the majority of better players were on Team Cat, and not that the better players on Team Cat had more opportunities to fight the worse players on Team Dog.

The real bs is the Splatfest matchmaking. Please post solutions for that.

Why do so many people whine about Dog vs. Dog matches? They didn't affect the score, however team cat had matches where they didn't even get a full team of 4. Team dog had more easy wins. At least Dog vs. Dog matches would be fun compared to being on a 1 player team stuck at spawn the whole match and you really can't deny that.

 

[Goddess Yami]

Why do so many people whine about Dog vs. Dog matches? They didn't affect the score, however team cat had matches where they didn't even get a full team of 4. Team dog had more easy wins. At least Dog vs. Dog matches would be fun compared to being on a 1 player team stuck at spawn the whole match and you really can't deny that.

While I do see your point. I just got annoyed playing against my own teammates. I wanted to take down Team Cat lol. I'm not trying to whine or anything. I still had fun, but I had even more fun in matches against Team Cat. So I'm hoping this time the teams will have almost even amount of players. That way we don't have teams against each other or teams missing a teammate.

 

[truefire]

Why do so many people whine about Dog vs. Dog matches? They didn't affect the score, however team cat had matches where they didn't even get a full team of 4. Team dog had more easy wins. At least Dog vs. Dog matches would be fun compared to being on a 1 player team stuck at spawn the whole match and you really can't deny that.

News flash: the issue with missing teammates at the start of the match happened regardless of team and had more to do with connection issues than cats being that scarce. It happened to me once on team dog where it was just me and one other member. Even now during the coasters vs. slides, I've had matches where I was on both ends of this issue. Twice. Team mirror matches are ultimately a waste of time during Splatfest. While the less popular team gets to have every one of their battles count, good or bad, at any given time there is a portion of players on the more popular team whose winnings won't count towards the actual competition, and then they're at the mercy of the matchmaking system when their game concludes. Here are some questions one must ask: Do I, being on the more popular team, get priority in the queue on a match against the enemy team if I just did a mirror? Are there any enemy teams available after my mirror? Was there an enemy team available that got matched with other teammates of mine during my mirror? All team mirrors is good for is ranking up your title, and that's a sidegrade--not an upgrade--to splatfest simply not matchmaking you at all if there are no opponents from the enemy team. The three minutes I spent futilely fighting four other [insert team theme here] Kings/Queens could have been spent waiting to get matched against an enemy team.

 

[JonCharles]

News flash: the issue with missing teammates at the start of the match happened regardless of team and had more to do with connection issues than cats being that scarce. It happened to me once on team dog where it was just me and one other member. Even now during the coasters vs. slides, I've had matches where I was on both ends of this issue. Twice. Team mirror matches are ultimately a waste of time during Splatfest. While the less popular team gets to have every one of their battles count, good or bad, at any given time there is a portion of players on the more popular team whose winnings won't count towards the actual competition, and then they're at the mercy of the matchmaking system when their game concludes. Here are some questions one must ask: Do I, being on the more popular team, get priority in the queue on a match against the enemy team if I just did a mirror? Are there any enemy teams available after my mirror? Was there an enemy team available that got matched with other teammates of mine during my mirror? All team mirrors is good for is ranking up your title, and that's a sidegrade--not an upgrade--to splatfest simply not matchmaking you at all if there are no opponents from the enemy team. The three minutes I spent futilely fighting four other [insert team theme here] Kings/Queens could have been spent waiting to get matched against an enemy team.

I agree. During my time in this splatfest, the number of matches where I have been playing with an uneven number of players seems to be pretty even for each side. Keep in mind that you are more likely to end up with missing teammates if you constantly cycle new teams. Even if it is indicative of something, remember that having more players active does not necessarily mean that they have more votes.

 

[DonkaFjord]

News flash: the issue with missing teammates at the start of the match happened regardless of team and had more to do with connection issues than cats being that scarce. It happened to me once on team dog where it was just me and one other member. Even now during the coasters vs. slides, I've had matches where I was on both ends of this issue. Twice. Team mirror matches are ultimately a waste of time during Splatfest. While the less popular team gets to have every one of their battles count, good or bad, at any given time there is a portion of players on the more popular team whose winnings won't count towards the actual competition, and then they're at the mercy of the matchmaking system when their game concludes. Here are some questions one must ask: Do I, being on the more popular team, get priority in the queue on a match against the enemy team if I just did a mirror? Are there any enemy teams available after my mirror? Was there an enemy team available that got matched with other teammates of mine during my mirror? All team mirrors is good for is ranking up your title, and that's a sidegrade--not an upgrade--to splatfest simply not matchmaking you at all if there are no opponents from the enemy team. The three minutes I spent futilely fighting four other [insert team theme here] Kings/Queens could have been spent waiting to get matched against an enemy team.

Not true- they were more prevalent on team cat. If you look at the top bar that has the 8 squids you will notice that if people get dropped for connection it will display the 'Dead' squid icon where if the team wasn't filled from the start it will display a special transparent icon and the results screen will be missing players entirely. I played over 100 matches last splatfest and for every 6-8 matches I had with missing team mates I ran into 1 match where team dog was disadvantaged. (Sometimes both teams were missing players but it was still even match ups.) Honestly when it comes down to it it is about fun and it is not fun being hammered and cornered at spawn for the whole match- I'd prefer to be battling my team at the very least.