Does matchmaking hate everyone equally?

[Aiko.Octo]

I think we can all agree that matchmaking is terrible at times. In fact, matchmaking is terrible in pretty much every game ever created. This is not necessarily the fault of the game or developers as much as it is just the nature of the fact that even the most sophisticated matchmaking algorithms can only do so much with a finite number of players and very limited information about those players.

But I take some solace in the belief that matchmaking hates everyone equally. If there ends up being a skill or comp imbalance between two teams, whether or not I end up on the stronger team or the weaker is a 50/50. Therefore, even though weird matchmaking can make a single game unfair, over the course of multiple games, statistically we all eventually break even; ultimately the matchmaking is still 'fair' in the sense that no one gets consistently favored over anyone else.

I wrote up a huge ramble a while back that I never posted about how there are many reasons we might feel like matchmaking hates us personally and why those reasons are not true. The intent of the article was to be helpful, because it makes sense that if you start to believe matchmaking will always screw you over, it will affect your mental state/become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Therefore if people would only just read this absurdly long breakdown of statistics and psychology, surely they will be convinced and then no longer believe that it is possible for matchmaking to hate them and will be free to enjoy the game again! Except it mostly just came out sounding like 'here's why you're BAD and WRONG about EVERYTHING.' Also, I realized that most people don't actually, logically believe that matchmaking has the capacity to single them out specifically and bully them; it's more of a desperate emotional reaction that cannot be argued with (and to try often only makes it worse). So the article wasn't really going to help anyone. X'D

But all that aside, there's also like this weird little nagging voice in the back of my head that's like "but........ what if it actually is possible for matchmaking to hurt specific people more than others for a logical reason that actually makes sense and might have some statistics to back it up and I just haven't thought of it?"

So, is there? Do any of you know of or can you think or theorize of a reason that we could perhaps seek to prove or at least back up with statistical data?

I'm not counting anything that has to do with the player's conscious choices. Like if you're playing a weapon or style that is better for coordinated team play of course you're going to have a harder time in soloq. But that's you having fewer opportunities for situations where you thrive due to your choices; it's not resulting in matchmaking consistently putting you on the weaker team in each game.

As far as I can think, the only way matchmaking could 'hate' you specifically would be if for some reason it was evaluating you as being far stronger than you actually were. You would then be more often used to 'balance' out weaker teams and would be thrown against teams that the game considered your equals but were actually stronger than you, resulting in you getting into more games where you don't really stand a chance. But I can't think of any reason this would algorithmically happen.

The only thing slightly related that I can think is that maybe there are matchmaking factors that differ based on circumstances or choices that we are unaware of. For example I have heard anecdotally that weapon experience may be taken into account by the matchmaking algorithm. IE, if you use a weapon you have 5 stars on, matchmaking will treat you like you are stronger than if you use a brand-new weapon. Granted, this has not been my experience personally, nor have I heard of this happening routinely. It is a curious theory though, so I wonder if others have ever felt like this was the case. Obviously anecdotal evidence is not proof in any way, but if there is enough of it, maybe it would be worth pursuing the acquisition of enough statistical data to investigate.

Any other thoughts?

 

[Mp3]

Me when I’m matched in anarchy (S) against all x rankers using HYDRAS AND DECAVITATORS
in OPEN
I’m scared
It sucked
I LOST Also

 

[youre_a_squib_now]

As far as I can think, the only way matchmaking could 'hate' you specifically would be if for some reason it was evaluating you as being far stronger than you actually were. You would then be more often used to 'balance' out weaker teams and would be thrown against teams that the game considered your equals but were actually stronger than you, resulting in you getting into more games where you don't really stand a chance. But I can't think of any reason this would algorithmically happen.

This happens when someone ranks up into a rank they don't belong in. Series gives you points on average even when you only win half your games, so people who grind enough will hit enough rank battles that they eventually get lucky and get paired with strong teammates and/or do uncharacteristically well in the rank-up battle, ranking them up into a rank they're not ready for.

It also happens when someone switches from a weapon they have a lot of experience with to a weapon they don't have much experience with. Unless the thing you mentioned about the game specifically accounting for this is true (and anecdotally I don't think it is) then using a less familiar weapon will also make them a less strong player than the game expects them to be.

 

[missingno]

I think there definitely are ways in which some players can find solo queue worse than others. Namely in terms of how it handles weapon comps. Splatoon makes literally no effort to make comps make sense - which in all fairness, would be very difficult to try to do, but you can see the effect it ends up having.

If you're playing a weapon that's very comp-dependent, you may frequently wind up on teams that just don't work with it. Whereas if you play a weapon that can fit into nearly any team, you get to fit into nearly any team. If you play a backline, you're obviously a lot more likely to land on double/triple backline than you would if you played a frontline.

I think X's weapon mirroring system does so much more harm than good as well. If you play one of the smaller categories, you'll notice you very frequently play the same matchups against the most popular weapon in your category. And if it's a matchup that your weapon is disadvantaged in, have fun facing your counter all the damn time.

Of course, it can also be argued that it's on the player to adapt to the environment, if your weapon sucks in solo queue then perhaps you should recall the immortal words of Sanford Kelly. It may be unfair to weapons, but it's not necessarily unfair to players as long as players always have the option to switch.

 

[QuagSass]

I do believe that matchmaking is out to get me personally always and forever.

But that's just because it's the only way the universe will stay in balance, I'm simply too powerful. The matchmaking algorithm is a hero to you all and I respect it for that. Keep trucking you silly little computer, one day I will break free from my bonds and explode the existence of all beings <3

 

[QuagSass]

On a more serious note, I hadn't heard of the weapon experience affecting matchmaking theory before, that's interesting to think about.
I dooooubt it's true though, cause I feel like I get into pretty disadvantageous comps regularly even when I play other backlines I dont have as much weapon exp in. Still it would be a nice ego-boost if the reason I get put in double backline comps a lot is just the game's way of telling me "show 'em how it's done, champ"

 

[NeoXVIII]

Kinda, it just depends on the day for me. Middle of the weekdays I'll get really good, fun matches that I'll enjoy, win or lose, and they don't feel unfair.

Late at night or on weekends though, and I'll consistently be put on teams with people who will struggle to do much of anything and end up getting locked out by the opposing team despite my absolute best efforts to keep/gain ground.

I don't remember exactly when but they did change the matchmaking a bit after the game released, could they have overcompensated to give sub minute queues?