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Probability of getting the same three sub abilities on a piece of clothing?

nick2427

Inkster Jr.
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
31
NNID
CM86
In particular, I am talking about getting sub abilities with a 5x chance. I will use the neon sea slugs as an example. They have a 5x chance of getting ink recovery up as a sub ability. What is the probability of re rolling my sub abilities in the neon sea slugs and getting three ink recovery ups?
 

The Claw

Inkster Jr.
Joined
Jun 17, 2014
Messages
32
NNID
mariomario494949
I'm making an estimate of a 1.7 chance, which is still pretty good.
 

ndayadn

yeah
Joined
May 2, 2015
Messages
235
Location
MI
NNID
Seabass
Whatever the chance of getting the ability is multiplied by three. I'm not sure of the exact value. It is going to be a percent/decimal, and just multiply that by 3.
 

Xeiros

Senior Squid
Joined
Apr 23, 2015
Messages
75
Eclipse5632 said:
I think it’s pretty common knowledge by now that most brands in Splatoon have a higher chance of rolling a certain ability, while having a lower chance of rolling another. For instance, Krak-On gear is five times more likely to get Swim Speed Up, but Defense is half as likely as other abilities to appear on those items. However from just those numbers it’s difficult to get a sense for exactly how much of a chance you have of getting two or three of the same ability on an item, even if you’re using an advantageous brand. That’s why I decided to crunch some numbers and calculate what the probability is of getting different ability combinations, partially so I could have an idea what level of investment it would take to get what I want.

In this analysis, I’ll be using the following terms to refer to the abilities affected by different brands:
“neutral” = an ability that has the normal, base chance to be added to gear
“favored” = 5x more likely to roll than the neutral abilities on that brand
“unfavored” = 0.5x as likely to roll than the neutral abilities on that brand

For tl;dr purposes, I’ll discuss my results first and you can take a look at the link at the end if you want the details about the math.

Chances of getting the favored ability in...
...exactly 1 slot: 42.2%
...exactly 2 slots: 19.3%
...all 3 slots: 2.78%.
...0 slots: 35.1%

Chances of getting a specific neutral ability in...
...exactly 1 slot: 15.2%
...exactly 2 slots: 1.4%
...all 3 slots: 0.06% (1 in 1636)
...0 slots: 83.4%

Chances of getting the unfavored ability in...
...exactly 1 slot: 8.1%
...exactly 2 slots: 0.5% (1 in 205)
...all 3 slots: 0.02% (1 in 6545)
...0 slots: 91.4%

There are also a few brands (KOG, Cuttlegear, and Amiibo) that do not favor any abilities. Here’s what the odds are for getting a specific ability on those:

Exactly 1 slot = 17.1%
Exactly 2 slots = 2.6%
All 3 slots = 0.2% (1 in 455)
0 slots = 80%

There are a couple of interesting takeaways here:

1) If you want an ability that isn’t favored by a brand (e.g. Bomb Range Up) or you don’t like any of the items that are made by a brand that favors it, you’re better off using one of the three brands with no favored abilities over a brand that has it as a neutral or unfavored ability.
2) You have a better chance of getting a single unfavored ability than you do two neutral abilities or three favored abilities.

Also, one metric that I like to think about when trying to wrangle with probabilities is how many times I have to try something in order for the overall chance of success to be more than 50% -- in other words, for the chance of you succeeding at least once to be greater than the chance of failing every time (assuming you don’t succeed before then). Here are those numbers for each case:

1 favored = 2 attempts
2 favored = 4 attempts
3 favored = 21 attempts

1 neutral = 4 attempts
2 neutral = 48 attempts
3 neutral = 1,134 attempts

1 unfavored = 9 attempts
2 unfavored = 142 attempts
3 unfavored = 4537 attempts

What we can take away from this is that if you want three of the same ability, using a brand that favors that ability is really the only feasible option. Of course, it’s not impossible with other brands -- just varying degrees of improbable. Needless to say, trying to get three of an unfavored ability is ludicrous, not to mention the exorbitant costs you would likely incur -- just getting past the 50% barrier would run you 136,110,000 cash.

More info about the calculations here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1QnA8xaepy4psSonKUfKPJOQ3FOjUq9B2fPplb1KHqQY/edit
 

Feryn Hyrk

Full Squid
Joined
May 28, 2015
Messages
42
I saw a Firefin hat in the plza with 3 swim speed ups on the subs, so the huge amount of players into splatoon + natural selection and spread of good equipment trough the plaza and Spyke ordering will work greatly in increasing the odds.

Needles to say I ordered the hat, I reallly hope Spyke can get it with intact!
 

KnightMB

Senior Squid
Joined
Jul 3, 2015
Messages
66
Location
Franklin, TN
NNID
KnightMB
When ordering gear with Spyke, do all the sub abilities come with the order exactly as you saw on the other player?

Edit, checked this link http://splatoon.wikia.com/wiki/Spyke and the higher your level, the more likely it will be an exact match for what you wanted. Cool.
 

Ikieri

Pro Squid
Joined
May 21, 2015
Messages
114
Location
CA
NNID
Mendozaz
So gear with 3 of it's undesired ability is basically the equivalent to a shiny, huh...
GOTTA BUY THEM ALL!!
 

KnightMB

Senior Squid
Joined
Jul 3, 2015
Messages
66
Location
Franklin, TN
NNID
KnightMB
I just tested out a Spyke order from another player and it only came with the main ability and one of the sub-abilities. The others were left to the ? which I guess means the item would have to be leveled up. I queued up 3 orders of similar items, so if any of them come back with more than one match sub-ability I'll be sure to chime in here. Otherwise, it only looks like you can get match items with one matching sub-ability so far.
 

Phobos

Inkling Commander
Joined
Apr 24, 2015
Messages
327
Location
London
How much cash did you have on hand? Since Spyke charges 100000 for a piece of gear with three unlocked subs, if you don't have at least that much in the kitty then it's possible (not confirmed) that it's more likely to arrive with blank slots.
 

SquiddiamFancyson

Inkling Cadet
Joined
Jun 3, 2015
Messages
180
NNID
DowntownMountain
How much cash did you have on hand? Since Spyke charges 100000 for a piece of gear with three unlocked subs, if you don't have at least that much in the kitty then it's possible (not confirmed) that it's more likely to arrive with blank slots.
You're correct about how much he charges but perfect gear can come regardless of the amount of cash you have. It's just a random chance, there's no confirmed data at the moment.

@KnightMB it could have come perfect, you were just unlucky. If they have two perfect slots though it's worth paying 30k for the final one though since you have a 30% chance of getting what you want. Its harder to reroll gear with all 3 slots unlocked with different things as you need 30% three times in a row rather than the isolated chance of a gear with two slots already rolled.
 

KnightMB

Senior Squid
Joined
Jul 3, 2015
Messages
66
Location
Franklin, TN
NNID
KnightMB
How much cash did you have on hand? Since Spyke charges 100000 for a piece of gear with three unlocked subs, if you don't have at least that much in the kitty then it's possible (not confirmed) that it's more likely to arrive with blank slots.
Don't let my wife see this :)
squid_cash.jpg
 

KnightMB

Senior Squid
Joined
Jul 3, 2015
Messages
66
Location
Franklin, TN
NNID
KnightMB
You're correct about how much he charges but perfect gear can come regardless of the amount of cash you have. It's just a random chance, there's no confirmed data at the moment.

@KnightMB it could have come perfect, you were just unlucky. If they have two perfect slots though it's worth paying 30k for the final one though since you have a 30% chance of getting what you want. Its harder to reroll gear with all 3 slots unlocked with different things as you need 30% three times in a row rather than the isolated chance of a gear with two slots already rolled.
Thanks, I read that others have gotten good exact copies, so as you said bad luck, not a limitation of the order feature as I initially thought.
 

Pareto

Semi-Pro Squid
Joined
Jun 24, 2015
Messages
80
NNID
PlusTB
In any given scenario, if there is a 30% chance of getting what you want based on a favorable brand, then the probability of three of those sub-abilities in a row is 2.7%. Of course, no one is just going to spin it once so:

12.79% chance of accomplishing it within 5 tries (150k or 5 snails)
23.94% chance of accomplishing it within 10 tries (300k or 10 snails)
33.67% chance of accomplishing it within 15 tries (450k or 15 snails)
42.16% chance of accomplishing it within 20 tries (600k or 20 snails)
56.00% chance of accomplishing it within 30 tries (900k or 30 snails)

44 tries will net you a 70% chance but golly...that cost...
 

Feryn Hyrk

Full Squid
Joined
May 28, 2015
Messages
42
I used all my sea slugs to increase slots, all but the last one wich I tried to rerroll my rockenberg stealth jump cherry kicks... it got worse, but I had some cash left and decided to reroll a second time and I got it perfect with all 3 run speeds.

So I'd advice you to follow your dreams guys.
 

Mrwhatzitooya

Pro Squid
Joined
Nov 25, 2014
Messages
116
So far my rerolls have been absolutely terrible xD I'm going to have to keep going, but man is it costly!

Does anyone know where i could find a list of the favourable abilities for each brand?
 

Mrwhatzitooya

Pro Squid
Joined
Nov 25, 2014
Messages
116
And don't forget to post it in that thread to help your fellow squids out once you do get those awesome clothes :p
Definitely! It seems like a great way to help everyone out! Might take me a while though xD The best i've got so far is Fake Contacts with x2 Special Charge Up.

Hoping to get some better results soon! :P
 

Njok

Bouncer
Joined
Jun 17, 2015
Messages
670
Location
Netherlands
Definitely! It seems like a great way to help everyone out! Might take me a while though xD The best i've got so far is Fake Contacts with x2 Special Charge Up.

Hoping to get some better results soon! :p
Yeah same here. I estimate that about 12 generations of Spyke's offspring will live comfortably from what i spend at that dude :D
 

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