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So... The Splatfest Results...

Discussion in 'Regular Discussion' started by Agent Z, Jun 24, 2018.

  1. Agent Z

    Agent Z Inkling Commander

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    I really don't understand here.
    I'm genuinely confused.
    I'm not angry. I'm playing as an Octoling now. Nothing could possibly make me angry for the next 3 months.
    What confuses me is that despite No-Pulp having a near 40% popularity advantage on Pulp, (70:30 ratio) they still lost. How. It doesn't make sense to me anymore.
    Now that I think of it, Marina's teams have been the most popular for nearly every single Splatfest so far. But the difference in popularity was never this massive.
    I get that the mirror matches have some amount of interference but that cannot possibly be the only variable here. It just can't be.
    The way I see it, the percentage of wins, team wins, and popularity shouldn't count as 1 point each. It should be all those percentages added up and whoever has the biggest number in the end should win.
    It's just amazing how Pearl's teams always manage to win more team matches and solo matches by just 2% or 3% more. Just. Barely. Every. Time.
    It's happened so many times now. It's rattling my brain here. Doesn't anyone else find this to be a little bit uncanny?
    I don't hate Pearl. I love that little princess, especially after the Octo Expansion. So it's not like I hate her and love Marina. I just don't... Get it.
     
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  2. Kidnacho

    Kidnacho Senior Squid

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    I have the same feeling and it's nice that Marina has had some recent wins thanks to solo or team wins being in her favor, especially since her teams are usually my honest opinion. (Ketchup, Werewolf, Socks, Love, No Pulp)
    Now I could be wrong, I can't say I could have any proof of this. This is just a hunch and my best guess: but what I fear is that veterans are doing what happened in Splatoon 1 and choosing the less popular team on purpose because the popular team is likely to have younger and/or less experienced players. I can understand why it happened in the past (not that I agreed with it or was happy about it), but I don't understand why it would still happen since it's supposed to be more fair with how the final score is counted now. Sure Marina's been more popular but I know she's won some Splatfests with popularity. Not to mention that I'm close to 50/50 with my W/L ratio. And my signature says I've chosen Marina 8 times now. (Technically you could say 7 but if I remember correctly, I counted every TMNT splatfest as a seperate splatfest)
     
  3. Ashco

    Ashco Inkling

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    As someone who has finally been able to get back into Splatfest more constantly I feel that I may be a bit against the way you two are going but I'll try to explain things the best I've seen them happening. Since the announcement of the Pulp V.S. No-Pulp Splatfest there had already been quite a overwhelmingly large notice of No-Pulp members in the lobby from their post, and that easily showed as the OP said with this Splatfest popularity possibly being the largest difference we've seen in Numbers in Splatoon 2 to date. Now, when it comes down to battling is where things can run a bit dry, I remember back in Splatoon 1 as @Kidnacho said about how the system was Very broken, in where the lower teams would have higher players in them because of the ratios that were given during games. In short, higher teams contains younger or not so skilled players versus smaller more condensed teams of skilled players with a jacked up skill ratio can result in massive points being put out for the smaller team.Those days were really something, Splatfest as a whole lost meaning but I don't feel that this Splatfest is directly linked with that problem and is instead... just an average Splatfest result.

    To remember, numbers don't mean anything when it comes to team size, the only thing that matters are the games that Pulp faces off against No-Pulp. If No-Pulp could face other No-Pulp teams and gain points for their team then this Splatfest would have been a land slide, this is also the same for if the actual calculated numbers added up like they did in Splatoon 1. Originally when Splatfest were shown in 2 I didn't agree with the new system but this Splatfest easily shows why it wouldn't be fair. Popularity as a stat is one I've debated about before, and while I don't mind it much it would heavily bother me if just because something is more popular it automatically wins. It would virtually be the reverse of Spaltoon 1's problem. If it functioned where numbers were added up then this Splatfest wouldn't have mattered at all, battles wise, because Pearls team (Pulp) wouldn't have gathered enough points to even reach Marina's (No-Pulp) lead, and that alone would be very disheartening for pulp players.

    Now, I am familiar with the earlier Splatfest for Splatoon 2, pearl did have quite the winning streak against Marina and that is something that may be more based off of her initial release than it is now. I was and am still happy that people are falling in love with little 'MC-Princess' as time has gone on in the game since Marina was instantly brought up as the "Splat2 Best Girl" short to say which was shown in the earlier Splatfest. People didn't care, they would just follow Marina for Marina (Which may be the side effects of Waifu War 1, Aka The Final Splatfest) and that alone had broken Splatfest for a while. Now an days we have seen a smoothing out of the numbers, extremely close numbers to be honest! ... and that is where I join you two. Now, it's different for the first couple of times but Splatfest have been becoming highly close to each other in the finishing Solo and Team games, removing that WOW! aspect and even seeming slightly odd...

    And though it may just be for effect I can only say in addition that Pearl and Marina's expressions to the score are always those of shock, as if the score will always be a close knitted fight for first and it just makes it all so... eh? So far in Splatoon 1 I have assisted the team in which I wanted to support for my likes against less preferred or dislikes, luckily most being things pearl and I have in common, and yes I was a Team Pulp member but I have to admit not just for this Splatfest but as a whole these close ties are getting saddening predictable, so much so that it's effect is nearly all gone. That rush of "Did we win?!" or the agony of "So cloooose!!!" is just... gone. Regadless if something isn't working right, the fabled "Splatfest is rigged post" is real or players are back to Side-Scumming (Something I will admit to being apart of in certain Splatoon 1 Splatfest) something likely needs to change with the Splatfest Formula, cause at this rate the only real thing that will matter about shifting won't be the numbers in the results but instead the stations we receive.

    I apologize for this being so lengthy, I was just trying to go for a paragraph at first but things quickly slipped out of hand! At the least I hope I conveyed my point well enough, thank you for reading it through!
     
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  4. Coolkid

    Coolkid Inkling Cadet

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    really each time i picked Marina's side i lose the splatfest..it is getting a little ironic to me...but i don't choose based on Marina or Pearl,i make my decision on what i prefer,i admit i was salty at the results because in my opinion Team no pulp was way better! at least i won most of my matches against team pulp tbh
     
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  5. MINKUKEL

    MINKUKEL Inkling Fleet Admiral

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    It could've been 1% or 40% or 99%. What difference does that make? It's still just one point for that category.
    No, because then the most popular team would always win. There's always a much bigger difference in popularity vote than in Solo/Team.
    Even if that was true, that wouldn't make *that* much of a difference. After all, there's probably not a lot of people who would be petty enough to do that. And the popularity/age distribution differs from topic to topic anyway. Sure, you can say that most kids won't like pulp. And kids will probably pick Charizard over Blastoise/Venusaur. But for most fests this doesn't apply.

    Not to mention, shouldn't it be those kids causing the results, not the veterans countering that choice? After all, there's more kids playing this than petty veterans.
     
    Kidnacho likes this.
  6. Cyan

    Cyan Inkling Commander

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    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmANK72CcUfzGLLNtMkRUI50PSQ44HCC-xQhS0Vm5uI/edit#gid=0

    Just dumping this here before people continue to complain about Splatfests.

    Before Nintendo stopped leaving the real numbers of every Splatfest result in SplatNet 2 (the Nintendo Switch Online App for all intents and purposes) we got perfect accuracy on the results of every Splatfest, how many people picked which team, how many wins each team scored in Solo and Team, so just open this doc and take a look. The last Splatfest that had this data left behind was Action vs Comedy, which was a very long time ago at this point. But the point still stands, on so many of these Splatfests one team had less than a 1000 wins lead, which leads to these 50.8% win factors and the score for that category. Splatfests are working, but Nintendo cannot odds the fact that the unpopular team barely squeezes out enough wins overall to take both battle victories and win the Splatfest.

    Let's take 2 of the European Splatfests for this argument, Warm Breakfast vs Cold Breakfast and Film vs Book:

    So here's the data for Warm vs Cold if you didn't click on the link:

    upload_2018-6-25_15-52-2.png

    Warm Breakfast won this, but the data you saw in game was as follows:

    53%-47%
    51%-49%
    49%-51%

    This was before they made it show decimal places but this Splatfest could have very easily gone either way. Cold took Team wins by 28 wins whilst Warm took Solo by 431 wins. 15 matches decided the outcome of Team wins here (yes this doesn't affect the overall victor, but follow through). 1 win for you is 1 loss for the enemy (because these have ended we'd remove 1 for the winning team and 1 for the loser, so a change of 2 every match), so by taking 15 from Cold and giving those to Warm it would have been a 3-0 KO. In perspective that's 14/15 matches out of a total 4274, so that's not even 0.4% of the total matches played in teams (for the final results score less if just matches). If we go to solo we'd flip the results by having Cold win 216/217 matches and Warm losing them we get an inverse:

    79'575 - 216 = 79'359
    79'144 + 216 = 79'360

    Cold wins by 1 match, scrapes the Solo win with the minimum requirement in this scenario (Team stays unaffected) and wins a 2-1, then we get another "Oh the popular team always loses, Splatfest is rigged" nonsensical argument thrown around (I understand this isn't one of those, but here we are).

    upload_2018-6-25_16-3-48.png

    (Throwing this here to demonstrate how close this was for Book winning, not going to disect the information again.)

    Does this justify the current system of Splatfest results? No, but it's a long way off being a broken system as people keep claiming it is. Splatoon 1 started out with the Popularity issue, despite the whole "wins is worth twice of popularity" because popular teams had like 20 point leads on the unpopular and a 6% win advantage only works out to 12 extra points, which is why the multiplier became 4x the amount, which was perfectly fine, but then for some reason they shot it up to 6x and broke everything. This system is by far fairer because you get 3 categories and 1 point for each, with the requirement being "win 2 of 3" for your team to become victorious.

    In an ideal world team imbalances like Film vs Book shows wouldn't be an issue, but where there's a topic there's a popular opinion, and where there's a popular opinion there's a massive wave of people bandying it about. This is further enhanced by the idea that Splatoon 2 is a children's video game and a theme like Pulp vs No Pulp will be inundated with kids because they absolutely hate bits in drinks and other liquids (not all, but most) so they skew things more and people avoid that team to not get terrible matchmaking times and bad experiences with a low skilled team.

    THIS is where the biggest issues with Splatfest arise, and no amount of fixes will alleviate this. I might as well refer back to Splatoon 1, because of the state of popular vs unpopular Splatfest Power was brought in to separate the S/S+ players (which I was in) from the A ranks, B ranks, C ranks and unranked (those where the 6 starting power requirements, S+, S, A+/A/A-, B+/B/B-, C+/C/C- and no rank). This did separate us because those who were in S/S+ recall the bloodbath Turf War Splatfests of the last few fairly well, and it also meant that team popularity was less noticeable because higher skilled players may have picked a lesser popular team whilst the kids and casuals picked the popular, meaning the win percentages dropped down and made 6x less powerful and popularity scores were worth a little more once again. Splatoon 2 uses placement matches for Splatfest Power, but you still get matched with anyone even when your power reaches 2300+, you even get placed with people in their "seeding" matches which scuppers the whole implementation of Splatfest Power.

    A massive essay, but just explaining how it works. I don't want to return to Splatoon 1 where popularity decided way too many Splatfest victories, because winning matches should mean way more than having more players on your team, but Splatfest Power needs adjusting again. I want to see the old system, and make it so the starting power will be decided on if you're Rank X, S+, S, Any A, Any B, Any C or unranked. It's not hard for them to average out your ranks when there's 4 and give you a power, then make power deliberately separate players. The only faults here are players going to Team instead and having a larger spread of areas to search for, so longer queue times occur, but it should at least make scores closer and give the popular team a better chance of winning one of the 2 categories.

    TL;DR: The data shows things are fine, but fixes are needed to matchmaking and Power to balance things out, do not go back to Splatoon 1 where popularity was too powerful at the start of the game.
     
    Marfie, calamaro, AllToonedUp and 6 others like this.
  7. Dessgeega

    Dessgeega Squid Savior From the Future

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    It isn't a splatfest without people questioning the results in some fashion. Seriously, it's like clockwork at this point. I think Cyan laid it all out very well.
     
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  8. Kidnacho

    Kidnacho Senior Squid

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    @Cyan
    Wow, I didn't even know you could find that kind of data in the game. Thank you for sharing this interesting information.
     
  9. Ashco

    Ashco Inkling

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    Splatnet always coming in slight bit handy when you need it, but along with Nacho thanks for a further breakdown. It's pleasing to see Splat1 Veterans taking notice to how the games have evolved thus far.
     
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  10. MINKUKEL

    MINKUKEL Inkling Fleet Admiral

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    @Ashco, just a friendly tip. But there's a lot of different color schemes you can pick for Squidboards. And some of them have a white background. In other words, your white text is unreadable on some them.
     
  11. Ashco

    Ashco Inkling

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    Oh! Thanks for the heads up @MINKUKEL ! It's been a while since I've been around Squidboards so I'll have to familiarize myself again.
     
  12. saint_kthulhu

    saint_kthulhu Full Squid

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    3 snail difference

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
     
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  13. Flareth

    Flareth Inkling Fleet Admiral

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    *shrug* they could make it so a win/loss in a mirror match contributes half a point/loss to the team, thus allowing popularity to be king again */shrug*

    I have no real dog in this race, especially since I haven't been in a Splatfest in six months. But I do recall hearing back in the day that how the ranking system works in this game (and the quality of the ranks themselves as a result) is a bit more lenient than it was back in S1, such that not everybody in a given rank is at the same skill level. If that's the case, then logically the solution is to tweak the ranking system such that all players in a match are on even footing. Do that, and the Splatfest issues should hopefully resolve themselves.

    /talkin'outmyass
     
  14. MasterMarine

    MasterMarine Inkling

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    I've seen this pattern in the past Splatfests and this one where one side has the popularity win and the other has the solo/team wins, and I believe that the mirror matches hold a big factor to this.
     

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