Dev. of a Squidboards Weapon Tier List - March->Sheldon's Picks Testing Period

[Vitezen]

It's good to be back working on this project again. To get to the point, this March is meant to be a testing period for me to finally examine how the proposed systems myself and others have devised for a Squidboards Weapon Tier List will actually function in the wild. In this thread, I will be posting the results of the data I gather and the calculations I make based on the criteria established in my previous threads. This testing period will allow me to become fully acquainted with the management of data needed to create a tier list reflective of the meta of the competitive meta, and also to reveal how well the hypothetical systems that were created will function, and whether or not tweaks will need to be made.

Below is the composite tier list, created by adding together all of the data gathered over the course of March 1 through the release of Sheldon's Picks.
Last compiled April 2

Spoiler: Current Trial Tier List and Rankings

173 Total Matches (+17)

Tier 1
(Empty)

Tier 2
Tentatek Splattershot (19.40) (-0.02)
.96 Gal Deco (11.28) (+1.26)
.52 Gal (11.25) (-0.36)
Luna Blaster Neo (10.59) (-0.03)

Tier 3
Custom E-liter 3k Scope (9.64) (-0.07)
Dynamo Roller (7.48) (-1.01)

Tier 4
E-liter 3k Scope (4.66) (-0.03)
Carbon Roller (2.40) (+0.96)
Kelp Splatterscope (1.85) (-0.20)
Custom Range Blaster (1.77) (-0.32)
Tri-Slosher (1.30) (-0.25)
Dual Squelcher (1.16) (+0.58)
Custom Blaster (1.09) (-0.12)
Carbon Roller Deco (1.09) (-0.12)
Zink Mini Splatling (1.09) (-0.12)
Custom Jet Squelcher (1.04) (-0.11)
Octobrush (1.04) (-0.11)
Gold Dynamo Roller (0.94) (+0.12)
Forge Splattershot Pro (0.87) (-0.09)
L-3 Nozzlenose (0.77) (-0.08)
Sploosh-o-matic Neo (0.72) (-0.08)
Splattershot Jr. (0.71) (+0.5)
Krak-On Splat Roller (0.69) (+0.01)
Splattershot Pro (0.65) (-0.07)
Slosher (0.65) (-0.07)
Heavy Splatling Deco (0.60) (-1.00)
Inkbrush (0.58) (-0.06)
Splatterscope (0.51) (-0.22)
Custom Hydra Splatling (0.39) (-0.04)
.52 Gal Deco (0.29) (-0.03)
Splash-o-matic Neo (0.29) (-0.03)
Bamboozler 14 Mk II (0.29) (-0.03)
N-ZAP '89 (0.29) (-0.03)
Rapid Blaster (0.29) (-0.03)
Rapid Blaster Deco (0.29) (-0.03)
Rapid Blaster Pro (0.29) (-0.03)
Bamboozler 14 Mk I (0.26) (+0.12)
Splash-o-matic (0.23) (-0.03)
N-ZAP '85 (0.17) (+0.11)
Rapid Blaster Pro Deco (0.14) (-0.02)
Luna Blaster (0.10) (+0.10)
Range Blaster (0.10) (+0.10)
Custom E-liter 3k (0.10) (+0.10)
Splat Roller (0.10) (-0.01)
Blaster (0.10) (-0.22)
Sloshing Machine (0.07) (-0.01)
Heavy Splatling (0.06) (=)

Tier 5 (Unranked)
.96 Gal
Aerospray MG
Aerospray RG
Custom Dual Squelcher
H-3 Nozzlenose
H-3 Nozzlenose D
Jet Squelcher
L-3 Nozzlenose D
Splattershot
Custom Splattershot Jr.
Sploosh-o-matic
Inkbrush Nouveau
Octobrush Nouveau
Classic Squiffer
New Squiffer
E-liter 3k
Splat Charger
Kelp Splat Charger
Slosher Deco
Sloshing Machine Neo
Tri-Slosher Nouveau
Hydra Splatling
Mini Splatling

The first set of data gathered was from the recent SCL 12 - Squid Within tournament, and this trial will run through every tournament posted on Squidboards that occurs this month and into April. Keep in mind, I only had access to matches that were broadcast on stream; however, I believe that this relatively small sample size will grow over time as more matches are broadcast later this month for more tournaments, allowing me to get a broader picture of the meta through a variety of different settings.

This thread is exclusively for the discussion of the current, trial tier list. To discuss or review any of the factors or calculations used in the creation of this tier list, please see the previous threads on the subject. Everything is explained in full there, so please try to refrain from asking about how the tier list or data was compiled in this thread. However, remember two things first:
1. Make sure you post a question or comment relating to a given portion of the process in the appropriate thread. If you don't, it makes it very hard for myself and others to find and address it.
2. I will not be making any changes to the proposed formula until this trial period is over.

Part 1, Calculating Weapon Ranks http://squidboards.com/threads/dev-of-a-squidboards-weapon-tier-list-part-1-calculations.10686/
Part 2, Outlining Tier Divisions http://squidboards.com/threads/dev-of-a-squidboards-weapon-tier-list-part-2-tier-creation.14683/
Part 3, Update Frequency and Data Range http://squidboards.com/threads/dev-...part-3-update-frequency-and-data-range.16720/

I hope to have some more great discussions and brainstorming here, so that together we can make this the best possible version of the Squidboards community tier list.

 

[Vitezen]

SCL 12 - Squid Within
Tournament Data

Spoiler

Upon reviewing the results, I was immediately reminded of a thread on this forum created by @Miirisa
http://squidboards.com/threads/are-rollers-less-used-these-days.21346/

It seems they were spot on. Maybe it's because of the nerfs, or maybe it's just the adaptations players have undergone to counter the earlier roller-heavy meta. The last time I remember watching a tournament, there was a significantly larger number of Krakons, Splat Rollers, and Carbons represented. The only roller that seems to see much success currently, if this data is an accurate microcosm of the meta as a whole, is the Dynamo, which I would consider more of a carpet bombing simulator than a roller. We also see the diminishing of the 96 deco and 52 compared to the overwhelming share that the TTK has captured, as well as a relatively higher frequency for the luna neo; not to say that the luna neo was bad before, just that it seemed to be less prominent, and more focused exclusively for use on TC.

 

[Silver]

Basing it off tournament appearance is odd to me. If that was the case, the weapons you listed in the SCL thing would just be top because this community doesn't care about variety or trying new things. They'd rather stick to Gals and E-Liters

 

[birdiebee]

I would like to see a tournament in which only the unranked weapons were allowed, in order to create a 2nd list ranking them. Just because they see no use in real competitive play doesn't mean they are all "equally useless," if you know what I mean.

The rankings here are nice and I feel that they approximate the "truth," but I wish for the sake of completion that the entirety of the weapons could be categorized using a similar metric.

 

[TacosConCarne]

A low tier weapon tournament sounds interesting

 

[Skoodge]

Basing it off tournament appearance is odd to me. If that was the case, the weapons you listed in the SCL thing would just be top because this community doesn't care about variety or trying new things. They'd rather stick to Gals and E-Liters

I think what makes the Japanese players generally better than Western players, is that they are more likely to try different weapons/team comps. They are not as mentally restricted, and even if they only play a few weapons in tournament, they have a lot more experience with the other weapons, and incorporate different strategies.

I think it is interesting how much more popular the Tentatek is compared to everything else, and the Luna Neo is really high, most people wouldn't consider it to be the 2nd best.

Anyway, I've said it before and I'll say it again, I still think that
teamwork and team comp>>individual weapon choice

I think this may account for the other discrepancy, which is becoming less of one over time, and that is the Custom E-Liter is above the vanilla, since it is a better team weapon, due to the flexibility of pushing and more focus on long range.

 

[Vitezen]

@birdiebee I agree, I would never say that a weapon is useless because it wasn't used, just as other people here are saying that the TTK and luna neo aren't necessarily the best. The function of this project is to help players predict what they will see in the average tournament, so they can plan for it.

I wouldn't expect a competitive player to look at the top of the list and say "Wow, the TTK is played often and wins often, therefore it's just the best weapon." What I do expect is two things:

1. That they make sure they have a strategy to deal with the TTK, because it is guaranteed they will be seeing it often.
2. That they evaluate their weapon choice in the context of how it can help them beat the TTK.

Just blindly picking the TTK because it's popular is a valid choice; it's a 50/50 matchup, with the only factor being skill and your teammates. But careful thought and awareness leads to more choices. For example, if a player is bad against fighting the TTK, they may consider switching to a weapon that can keep away from them, like the 96 or an Eliter. Even though those weapons are ranked lower because they appear less often, they may be the right choice for you based on your own strengths and weaknesses.

The same logic applies for not putting down unranked weapons. All unranked means is that they don't appear to be a significant part of the metagame. If you are scared of playing against a Nozzlenose, for example, because your weapon doesn't do well against them, you have nothing to fear, because no one seems to be playing them.

 

[Vitezen]

Booyah Battle 5
Tournament Data

Spoiler

First of all, thanks to @BestTeaMaker for the stream and commentary. It was very useful, for myself and others, to have a centralized location to watch the matches for this tournament, instead of having to search for the streams of whoever was playing.

Partly due to the wider variety of teams observed, the innovative choices of some of the teams, and the larger sample size, we see quite a few new weapons breaking into Tier 4, while the upper tiers still remain the same. A noticeable shift occurs, with weapons fitting in Tier 3 disappearing entirely as they drop down into Tier 4 due to not enough continued representation.

 

[Vitezen]

SCL 13- No Witty Title
Kraken Kup Tourney
Tournament Data

Spoiler: SCL 13- No Witty Title

Spoiler: Kraken Kup Tourney

HUGE update here. SCL 13 alone had almost as many matches recorded as the last few updates combined, and with the addition of the Kraken Kup Tourney, the total matches recorded increased by almost 2.5 times since the last update. Big thanks to all the streamers of SCL 13 and Kraken Kup Tourney for providing this much coverage.

Despite the ratio of matches between these two tournaments, the big star of the day was Kraken Kup Tourney for its innovative weapon choices. This tournament was the first of this month's batch whose top ranked weapon wasn't the TTK. The heavy usage of the 52 and the decline of the Luna Neo in this tournament single-handedly caused these weapons to switch places in the overall rankings, bringing the 52 straight up to tier 1 and the Luna Neo down to tier 2. Overall, the tournament showed a lot of variety, bringing quite a few weapons up in the rankings, including filling tier 3 once more, this time with the Kelp Splatterscope, and bringing the standard scoped E-liter to the brink of falling to tier 3 as well.

 

[Vitezen]

SCL 14: Survival of the Squiddest
Tournament Data

Spoiler

Another huge update here. Not in terms of recorded matches, but in how the data is processed.

As I observed the numbers I was recording, I began to notice a pattern that didn't match up with how the tier list was meant to be constructed. The number of times a weapon appeared didn't seem to factor into the rankings whatsoever! Weapons with wildly different frequency of appearance but the same frequency of success would have exactly the same ranking. I checked the equation I was using, and sure enough, it was the culprit.

The initial equation used was
(A/(2M))(S/A)/100
The way I looked at it only hid the problem! When I simplified it, this was what it actually came out to be
50S/M
Appearance rate didn't matter in this equation!

To remedy this, I've constructed a better equation that I believe more accurately outputs the rankings I wanted when I started this project:

50S^2
AM

Now that the rankings are properly accounting for frequency of appearance as well as success, I've adjusted the compiled rankings to reflect this. Because of this new formula, as well as the likelihood of a meta upheaval with the release of Sheldon's Picks, I've decided to continue this trial period until the first release of the new weapons. In addition to any comments on the tournament results posted, feel free to give any feedback you have on the new calculation method. Also, interestingly enough, this calculation method has eliminated Tier 1 entirely. If this becomes a consistent occurrence, I may opt to make Tier 1 something like a "super tier," that only appears occasionally, with the default list only containing 4 tiers.