Reroll odds.

[Dessgeega]

I've been looking for this information and I've yet to find a conclusive answer that people agree on.

Does anyone have the exact odds of getting a neutral triple roll on gear? I'd like to know how long I'll be poking the gamepad while I do other things :P

If this post is redundant, just give me a link to the info and I'll be on my merry way. Thanks for reading!

 

[ϛ(°³°)/`]

When the brand doesn't favour an ability, all 13 have equal probability of appearing. When brands do have an influence, one ability is boosted to 5 and another is reduced to 0.5, leaving the other eleven as 1. This gives favored abilities a 5/(11+0.5+5), or 5/16.5 chance of appearing. Unfavoured abilities become 0.5/16.5 and unaffected ones become 1/16.5.

From this, you can conclude that if a piece of gear has the main ability you want, and the subs you want are not the brand influenced one, you'd be better off trying to use a cuttlegear article of clothing for the subs than that one (1/16.5 compared to 1/13 for each sub). ex. getting 3x run speed on a Tenacity hat is easier with the Hero Helmet Replica than a Soccer Headband. If you were looking for 3x ink recovery, however, the Tentatek brand Soccer Headband would be far easier to use, at 5/16.5.

 

[Dessgeega]

I appreciate the explanation, but I knew all that. I was kind of hoping more for percentages and whatnot. You know, hard numbers I can keep in mind when I'm grinding, "THIS is the horrible number I have to beat" :P

 

[ϛ(°³°)/`]

I appreciate the explanation, but I knew all that. I was kind of hoping more for percentages and whatnot. You know, hard numbers I can keep in mind when I'm grinding, "THIS is the horrible number I have to beat" :p

Well those fractions are easy enough to convert to percentages; just punch them into a calculator and multiply by 100. But alright, prepare the number crunching machine!

Brand neutral:
• 1/13 ~= 7.7%, 3× sub = (1/13)^3 = 1/2197 ~= 0.0455%

Brands with influence:
• Favoured: 5/16.5~= 30.3%, 3× sub = (5/16.5)^3 ~= 1/36 ~=2.78%

• Neutral: 1/16.5 ~= 6.06%, 3× sub ~= 1/4492 ~= 0.0223%

•Unfavoured: 0.5/16.5 ~= 3.03%, 3× sub = (0.5/16.5)^3 = 1/35,937 ~= 0.00278%

 

[Dessgeega]

Thank you :P Like many I am math-challenged. Less than 1% odds, hoo boy I'll be at it for a while.

 

[ϛ(°³°)/`]

Thank you :p Like many I am math-challenged. Less than 1% odds, hoo boy I'll be at it for a while.

I managed to get a 1/4492 roll on my sun visor for 3× bomb range up before getting the 1/36 3× ink recovery, so don't doubt the weird curveballs that RNG can throw your way. In any case good luck!

 

[sammich]

i've only recently started seriously rolling... it may be surprising what you get?

i used to barely roll anything and accept two matching subs as fine, just sticking with the main abilities and things i thought looked fashionable/cool. eventually i had over 100 rolls worth of money built up, and just decided to roll for the heck of it.

a lot of the gear got triples in areas that i didn't particularly want, but some of mine DID (despite not being the prime category of that clothing). it was quite a large number of consecutive rolls, but in those rolls i was able to get a lot of good-to-acceptable triples on a lot of my favorite gear.

as long as you have gear that's "good enough," just keep rolling when you can.
or alternatively, find something with the highest chances in what you want and get those squared, then start rolling on the gear you REALLY want and you may eventually get lucky. it's not as impossible as it sounds.

you'll probably want to avoid NEGATIVELY influenced gear, though, unless you already have a good outfit of settled gear.

 

[Z_Boy]

Hi guys!
I have something very annoying with the Traditionnal Headband (Famitsu), a gear without (un)favored abilities; I'm trying to get 3 Quick Super Jump but actually, I made 300+ rerolls and impossible to get that! I didn't even get 3 identical of any the 13 sub abilities, which despair me to have 3 QSJ one day...
Seriously, nintendo are just deadly insane to put such a ****ty RNG in their games (with a system impeding the players to get the stuff they want)!

EDIT: I heard about the other equipped gears have an influence on roll results; I have the Krak-On 528 (with 3 Swim Speed Up) and the Cherry Kicks (with 3 Run Speed Up)
During my rerolls, I noted the following:
- I roll some abilities less often than others, whereas they are supposed to be drawn equally
- I can't get more than 2 identical abilities, but I find this occurs (relatively) frequently; something like 3 or 4 / 25 rolls

 

[mm201]

I built a list of probabilities over here: https://gist.github.com/mm201/8bfe371ed399ead3fb46

If the thing you want is very rare, you're probably better off abusing the Spyke ordering system, i.e. find someone who has what you want with 2/3 slots, order it from them, then save scum the last slot.

 

[Z_Boy]

Yeah I think this would better but this headgear seems to be extremely under used and I don't have any miiverse friends who can help me (me: by rolling in the first two slots then he orders, using save scum to get 2 or 3 slots, and finally I order to him trying to get exactly 2 slots)

EDIT: lol I read your probabilities table and find 1/169 to get 3 of the same ability on neutral gears => I rolled absolutely nothing for the 500+th rolls and at least got 4 today for the 300+ next rolls! I'm reassured there is nothing wrong with the RNG of my Traditional Headband.

 

[Goolloom]

So I have about 0.02% to roll that pure Forge Inkling Parka.
It's still better odds than finding a shiny Pokémon...

Guess I'll be doing that for a while...

 

[Dessgeega]

So I have about 0.02% to roll that pure Forge Inkling Parka.
It's still better odds than finding a shiny Pokémon...

Guess I'll be doing that for a while...

I'm right there with you, working on a pair of Tinted Shades currently. I've had multiple 0.02% chance rolls so far... just not the one I actually want :P

 

[AC_Decoy]

I'm easy to please. Whenever I get at least 2 slots of what I want, I stick with it. If I get 3 slots of the same sub, even if it isn't a sub I want, I keep it. I don't save scum either and I have some pretty good shiny gear! :D

 

[Dessgeega]

At this point, the fact that tinted shades with 3x quick respawn will be great for my playstyle is besides the point. I just kinda want at least one piece of "rare" gear that I can use to feel FANCY and possibly inspire other save scummers to waste time using Spyke to steal from me :P

 

[Cephalopun]

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[AC_Decoy]

Could you elaborate on how to do it?

 

[Cephalopun]

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[chubbypickle]

I'm easy to please. Whenever I get at least 2 slots of what I want, I stick with it. If I get 3 slots of the same sub, even if it isn't a sub I want, I keep it. I don't save scum either and I have some pretty good shiny gear! :D

same here when i go for pure gear and i get 3 slots of perfect subs even if its not what i wanted i keep it just incase for another gun and try to achieve my gear on my current weapon through another piece i just can't reroll pure gear