The Results of the newest Big Run might be Different

[Cephalobro]

So, the newest Big Run's results might actually just be a set result and not be tied to the percentage of players. I see this as a good thing, as it was getting harder and harder for many players to actually get to the 5%. This is a good move in my opinion as more players now have a better chance to get to the 5%.

And yes, I already got to the 5% on it, but this change still makes me happy for the players who want to get to the 5% (also I finally don't have to feel guilty when all I wanted to do is to easily farm scales).

 

[briank913]

what source, if you will, do you have to base this off of? I haven't heard anything special about this coming Big Run.

 

[Cephalobro]

what source, if you will, do you have to base this off of? I haven't heard anything special about this coming Big Run.

This is where I got this info from:

 

[missingno]

I'm disappointed in this. I still haven't scored BR top 5%, it's been my goal to finally pull it off next time. And now that goal is gone, this isn't 5% anymore. I can't go for the real thing.

But I guess I understand why they did it. There's been too much salt and toxicity as people have just been really sore losers about the fact that 95% of you will not score top 5% because that is how percentiles work. We can't have this kind of competition because the community can't handle it gracefully.

Spoiler

honestly though if we're gonna start taking things away because of people being salty, please delete splatfests next

 

[Mbappe]

I'm disappointed in this. I still haven't scored BR top 5%, it's been my goal to finally pull it off next time. And now that goal is gone, this isn't 5% anymore. I can't go for the real thing.

But I guess I understand why they did it. There's been too much salt and toxicity as people have just been really sore losers about the fact that 95% of you will not score top 5% because that is how percentiles work. We can't have this kind of competition because the community can't handle it gracefully.

Spoiler

honestly though if we're gonna start taking things away because of people being salty, please delete splatfests next

Well if you want to be in the top 5% get better

 

[Cephalobro]

I'm disappointed in this. I still haven't scored BR top 5%, it's been my goal to finally pull it off next time. And now that goal is gone, this isn't 5% anymore. I can't go for the real thing.

But I guess I understand why they did it. There's been too much salt and toxicity as people have just been really sore losers about the fact that 95% of you will not score top 5% because that is how percentiles work. We can't have this kind of competition because the community can't handle it gracefully.

Spoiler

honestly though if we're gonna start taking things away because of people being salty, please delete splatfests next

There's more to it than just that, when Nintendo added the scale multiplier, it was clear that it was bad news for those who didn't get to the 5% yet because anything that eases the grind in Salmon Run was bound to have overfishing increased, which meant more players who tried to shoot for 5% simply wouldn't have been able to get to the result. With a set number, pro Salmon Run players can farm for scales without them having an effect on the chances of players who didn't get to the 5% yet. Besides, those who want to get to the 5% will still have to put in the effort for it, having a set number doesn't change that.

 

[missingno]

I'm not understanding what scales have to do with anything here.

 

[Cephalobro]

I'm not understanding what scales have to do with anything here.

Basically, there are a lot of rewards locked behind scales, like the Grizzco gear, Salmonid-themed locker decorations, banners, and stickers as well as alternate uniforms for Salmon Run, all of those cost scales in hugely varying amounts, there are now rewards that cost big triple digits for scales. So players who want to ease the grind for scales will naturally play an event that doubles the scale earned after a wave against a King Salmonid, many of those players also overfish who also have earned the 5% in a Big Run.

 

[missingno]

People who go for high scores are going to do so regardless of scales. Hell, people who grind Salmon Run that heavily are already overflowing with scales, they're more interested in grinding the fact that there's a new limited time only map. And top level overfishers comprise far less than 5% of the playerbase, that simply isn't how percentiles work.

If anything, the scale bonus gives more casual players who don't play Salmon Run as often an incentive to participate, which would push the percentiles back down.

 

[briank913]

With a set number, I'm kinda disappointed too because the victory of getting Top 5% won't be as meaningful.
And I hear all 7 Grizzco weapons are part of the rotation for Big Run.

 

[Forma]

Patch notes have confirmed it, and honestly? It's a necessary change. Big Run as a competitive event never made much sense, both in-universe and in gameplay. It's been framed as an event where the community is trying to cooperate, not compete. It was always a weird choice to make the reward thresholds based on player statistics, especially when you consider two things:
- Big Run is not a level playing field. The weapons you get each wave, what each wave type is and what bosses spawn per wave is random, and all of this has a direct effect on what your score potential even is. An extremely unlucky player in Big Run could end up never seeing the number of bosses they need to reach the top 5% threshold - something that simply isn't a factor in Salmon Run's other, actually competitive Eggstra Work events.
- The way freelance works practically ensures even the most dedicated players cannot reach that score threshold. If you only work freelance alone, at EVP you're still going to be pooled in with the lowest tier Profresionals, dragging your scoring potential down unless you go on a winning streak with a random team.
One of these is frustrating, but manageable for all but the most unlucky players - both combined locks all but the luckiest players who would otherwise have the skill necessary to succeed out.

Clearly, Nintendo has data on their end that suggests this is the way to go about it. Big Run very likely has problems with player retention - we have enough data about player numbers for the first 3 events, combined with score thresholds creeping higher and higher, to assume double scales weren't enough of an incentive for casual players to pop in and lower the totals. I know that if I wasn't invested already, seeing those top 5% numbers just creep higher and higher would be enough for me to decide it's not worth my time to try at all.

Pure speculation, but around 135 is probably the mode of the dataset's high end if I were to guess. I don't even mind there being a scoring system like that - maybe there could be less meaningful rewards like a huge batch of scales for top scorers? It's cool that if you ARE invested in where you place, that data is being expanded upon in the app now.

 

[missingno]

An extremely unlucky player in Big Run could end up never seeing the number of bosses they need to reach the top 5% threshold

Number of bosses spawned is a constant based on the Hazard level, it's not RNG. Outside of night waves which will vary a bit, every day wave at the same hazard level has the same theoretical maximum possible eggs. And that maximum possible is way way way higher than 5% thresholds have ever been. It may take some grinding to get a really benevolent seed that will make it easier for you, but you're not going to get seeds that are straight up impossible to score on, with enough skill you don't need RNG.

If you only work freelance alone, at EVP you're still going to be pooled in with the lowest tier Profresionals, dragging your scoring potential down unless you go on a winning streak with a random team.

This is incorrect, matchmaking pairs you with players near your level. I'm not actually sure what the range is, obviously there's a little bit of wiggle room, but when I did my 999 climb I would consistently get into HLM games almost every time towards the end, which only happens if the average level of all four players is at least 865.

It's possible to get to HLM in Freelance. And if you can get there, you can get a good score, these numbers are very much doable. I highly doubt that more than 5% of the playerbase is playing with a team anyway, that's a small minority compared to casual solo queue players.

 

[Forma]

This is incorrect, matchmaking pairs you with players near your level. I'm not actually sure what the range is, obviously there's a little bit of wiggle room, but when I did my 999 climb I would consistently get into HLM games almost every time towards the end, which only happens if the average level of all four players is at least 865.

You're right, I probably should have known this based on my time with 2. My bad.

Number of bosses spawned is a constant based on the Hazard level, it's not RNG. Outside of night waves which will vary a bit, every day wave at the same hazard level has the same theoretical maximum possible eggs. And that maximum possible is way way way higher than 5% thresholds have ever been.

This is also true, but I screwed up big time trying to make my point. I apologize for that.
My point isn't that it's literally impossible to reach these numbers - that's plainly silly since even at EVP 40 you get numbers that would have reached last Big Run's top 5%. 100% egg collection isn't really attainable for most people, though - if my previous successful matches were anything to go by, the average is closer to 70%, 75% if we're being generous. Apparently top 5% for this run was 165 eggs - assuming a random team can get about 75% of eggs spawned, that's already a rather high hazard level required to reach 220 total eggs spawned. Is this doable should you reach HLM? Absolutely, yes, but that's the problem when we compare this to the other competitive SR event - random conditions, random weapons and random teammates are contributing factors to whether or not it's reasonably possible for a player to climb that high in the first place. In Eggstra Work, all you have to contend with should you go the freelance route is random teammates, giving you more room for skill expression.

That also relates to scale rewards being doubled - it matters most to casuals, but does it make a difference to them if they keep getting stuck in situations they can't handle because of the random elements of Big Run? You only get scales on successful xtrawaves, after all. Having tangible goals to aim for instead of numbers that might as well be infinitely high to them are only a good thing and will likely result in the extra scale rewards actually coming into play.

I also want to make it perfectly clear that I don't mean to disparage the effort it takes to reach those numbers, because it's a legitimate accomplishment to reach those scores, and I'm happy they still keep track of them, even if it's not shown directly in-game anymore. I sincerely hope you managed to hit top 5% this time!

I don't know if we'll ever actually learn if this was a success or not because of Nintendo's (probably rightful) reluctance to share that sort of data with us, since we only got data on player numbers for the first 3 from datamining and they've started protecting that number since. I still stand by the idea that something had to be done - Big Run is a cornerstone event for Splatoon 3, and it doesn't look good for player numbers to keep shrinking. If that means devaluing the gold badge and the Power Egg decoration + any future rewards (presuming no reruns), that seems like a good trade-off to me.