Correlation between Wins/Popularity in NA Splatfests | An Experiment

[SwiftySquid]

To some, Splatfest may be just a fun event that you can play and no matter what you'll win Sea Snails, so it won't matter what team you're on. But, upon further analysis, there may be a way to increase your odds of winning with this simple rule. This only applies to NA Splatfests currently.

I entered in the data of all past Splatfests and made one chart each for European Splatfests, Japanese Splatfests, and NA Splatfests. Japanese and European Splatfests had almost no correlations between wins and popularity, but NA showed a shocking trend. So shocking, it's noticeable.

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I needed to see if it worked. So, I predicted the Popularity of Pizza, put it into the function (shown above), and formulated what I thought the results would be. The following were my predictions.

Pizza: 64 + 276 (46% x 6) = 340
Burgers: 36 + 324 (54% x 6) = 360

So, I joined Splatfest with the Team Burgers, and went to see if my hypothesis worked. It absolutely did!

The popularity of Pizza was 63%. According to my algorithm, the wins should be roughly 45.8%, which is only 4% off from the actual percentage of 44%. The trend may not be happening in Europe or Japan, but in this direction that we've been traveling in lately, the NA should continue having this low-popularity to high-win ratio in Splatfests. Do you support this theory or not? I'm open to opinions supporting or dismissing this claim.

 

[VideoGameVirtuoso]

Sure, the pattern is noticeable enough, but it will be more supported if the continuing Splatfests follow the same trend.

 

[SwiftySquid]

Sure, the pattern is noticeable enough, but it will be more supported if the continuing Splatfests follow the same trend.

I'll follow up on it in a few weeks/months.

 

[chubbypickle]

to make this more simple and its worked everytime.................. when you choose pick the opposite of what you think the 8yr old kids would choose

 

[Pteropine]

I think they should have kept splatfests wins at x4 it was enough you know? x6 makes it seem like popularity has no part in the results! and x2 seems to make popularity more relevant... x4 is in the middle!

 

[SwiftySquid]

I think they should have kept splatfests wins at x4 it was enough you know? x6 makes it seem like popularity has no part in the results! and x2 seems to make popularity more relevant... x4 is in the middle!

Yeah! It seems like they're trying to find a middle ground but it's not really working at this point.

 

[Demonic Labrys]

Yeah cause the fests aren't being fun anymore cause you'll know who will win
Sadly I thought this fest will be like Art vs Science but nope it wasn't

 

[Joseph Staleknight]

Yeah, I can clearly see the trend. Granted, we've only gotten 8 NA Splatfests so there's still room for a curveball, but if it ends up holding after a few more I should probably feel a bit disturbed.

 

[CM2]

Yeah cause the fests aren't being fun anymore cause you'll know who will win
Sadly I thought this fest will be like Art vs Science but nope it wasn't

I think wins is taking too much of the credit now. Yes I understand the frustration when the wins you got was greater but it still didn't outmatch popularity on the opposing team but that's life. I think 4x is a reasonable bonus multiplier to be honest.

 

[SwiftySquid]

I think wins is taking too much of the credit now. Yes I understand the frustration when the wins you got was greater but it still didn't outmatch popularity on the opposing team but that's life. I think 4x is a reasonable bonus multiplier to be honest.

For example, if the multiplier were x4 in this Splatfest, the scores would be 261 (Burgers) to 239 (Pizza), which is much closer.

 

[LimitCrown]

I personally think that the x2 was just fine. The x6 multiplier is clearly too high because marginally high win percentages like the one in the most recent Splatfest can make winning for the opposing popular team a virtually impossible task.

 

[The ΩS]

2x might be ok, but any side popular in Japanese will outright win like their previous splatfests (still does, but not as easy). So I suggest around 3x (or 4x as previous) to make things a little more possible for the popular team and not a free win for the less popular.

 

[LimitCrown]

The winners of most of Japan's Splatfests were teams that had both the most popularity and the most wins, and the two instances in which the winners had less wins and more popularity were very similar to each other.

 

[Demonic Labrys]

The winners of most of Japan's Splatfests were teams that had both the most popularity and the most wins, and the two instances in which the winners had less wins and more popularity were very similar to each other.

our best splatfest for america with both wins in popularity and match wins was art vs science

man that was an intense but fun fest

 

[Zero Meddler]

Popularity does seem to be a factor in winning NA Splatfests. However, I have a feeling that this trend of "the less popular team will win" will bite itself in the butt as more and more people recognize it. It may not be long before people choose the "less popular team", only to see many others had the same idea. This could either balance out the popularity or reverse it on the basis of people thinking: "I see a lot of posts of people joining Team A, so I'll join Team B".

That's my theory anyway. =/

 

[Aristeia]

As salty as I was about my beloved Ninjas losing a few weeks ago, I really think that popularity shouldn't matter much at all. Who cares if it's harder for the team with less wins to win the Splatfest? Isn't that...the point of playing the games? And really they occur just often enough where if you get to King/Queen you should be fine on Snails regardless.

 

[Vitezen]

If Japan's winners won on both fronts, than that ruins the theories about game mechanics themselves causing a correlation between less popularity and more wins. If this is the case, it could just be an American thing based on the number of children that play the game. What are the age ranges for Japanese and American players?

 

[RespawningJesus]

As salty as I was about my beloved Ninjas losing a few weeks ago, I really think that popularity shouldn't matter much at all. Who cares if it's harder for the team with less wins to win the Splatfest? Isn't that...the point of playing the games? And really they occur just often enough where if you get to King/Queen you should be fine on Snails regardless.

The problem with that line of thinking is that only works if splatfests are only determined by W/L only. But popularity is another factor in the equation. The point of using both popularity and wins is to make the competition as close as possible, and more importantly less predictable.

If people can easily predict who is going to win the competition before it even starts, then it defeats the purpose of even having the competition.

 

[SquiliamTentacles]

Just going to quote somebody else here.

At this point, I feel like the trend of the less popular side winning NA Splatfests may have become a self-fulfilling prophecy. We had a few Splatfests in which the less popular side won, people got it into their heads that the less popular side would tend to have an advantage in wins, and now the people who are in it for the snails (that is, the veteran players) tend to opt for the less popular team on purpose, thus creating the advantage through their own actions.

 

[Aristeia]

I don't think I understand what you mean here, DAK. If the competition were to theoretically ONLY be based on W/L, then Splatfests would be less predictable because seeing one side plastered all over Miiverse posts and Internet forums and not the other side would not influence the likelihood of that side winning. The popularity factor adds in the predictability and skews people's decision-making. I personally think it should be removed, or at least noted in the results but not part of them.