Nerfs Inkoming? 9.0(?) Prediction Thread.

[briank913]

So in the 8.1 Patch Note, the devs said that the next patch (which is THIS Saturday 5 PST/8EST) will also focus on "lowering the abilities of select weapons." What would you all say is on the chopping block?

Nerfs and Buffs have focused primarily on what's overused (Splattershot, Stamper, REEF-LUX (Turf), etc. vs what's niche and not been used (Inkbrush, Sploosh, S-Blast, etc).

Here are my personal predictions:
Splat Roller - This has seen quite a lot of use this season, especially in the JP side of things. While they buffed Big Swigs and Carbons (and Dynamo so they say), these have not seen as much use as the vRoller. But if anything, they may get hit with ink efficiency nerfs or to specials.

Stamper - I hate writing this one. Devs sure love to nerf this thing to the ground D: But seeing as how it is THE sword of choice, competitively and even casually, it's bound to be on the chopping block. How will they nerf it this time? Idk.

Squeezer: You're kidding right? Even being among the exclusive 220p special hall of fame, people still use this left and right, especially in Takoroka. I don't think they'll go beyond 220 on specials, so maybe another ink efficiency nerf or a nerf to its painting mode.

Neo-Splash - The meta has forced shooters in particular to be more support. And one of the best choices for this role is Neo Splash. It goes brrrr, it bombs, and it Tristrikes. ALOT. With the devs indirectly buffing Big Bubble through Trizooka/Inkjet Damage nerf from 8.1 and the "painting" buff from 8.0, I think Tristrike weapons have seen some resurgence. That being said I don't think it will get a hard nerf though, maybe a 210p special nerf.

Slosher - This thing has been good already. But the reason why I state this one is for the same reason as Neo Splash: Tristrike for Bubble. Thus I think Slosher will get a 210p special nerf.

Splattershot Jr - The problem is not the weapon itself but the subs. The Jr and its Custom counterpart are objects of bomb spamming. Thus what I think may happen is some tweaking where bomb spamming is more difficult to pull, such as an increased cooldown after a sub. Whether the Splat Bombs (Suction too if you want to include it) and Torpedos themselves get an ink efficiency nerf is another question.

Pencil - Personally I don't think Nintendo wants to touch Pencil because of how much love they gave it. From its humble beginning in Chill 22 as a low-tier weapon to the agent of competitive meta that it is through its many gradual buffs, I think Pencil may have a special place in the dev's heart. That being said, because of its status as practically the premiere backline, I think it may just get a 220p special nerf (but a lot of people, myself included, hope that'll be wrong).

Wellstring - I was surprised by how a lot of people in the JP side use Wellstring, especially over Decav. And why not? It's practically a legalized version of Grizz Stringer. That being said, I think an ink efficiency nerf may be coming for it.

Custom Range Blaster - RB itself is an excellent weapon and the last time it was touched was a special nerf to 210p Wave. CRB as of now is 200p. I think CRB may receive the same 210p treatment.

52 Gal - Nogami's beloved. Last time this was nerfed was most likely in response to Melon's X Rank with 52. I do think 52 usage has dropped while maintaining some presence in the meta. Thus I think this the 52 may end up joining the 220p special club.

What about you guys? Are there any not listed that you think will be on the chopping block? Any from this list you disagree with?

 

[QuagSass]

Charging my special version of Booyah Bomb that's specifically made to give pencil bajillion nerfs.

Jokes aside, here's hoping pencil does get a substantial nerf. I don't think it needs to be completely killed off, but I would like it if it didn't completely dominate the backline role.

I'm fully expecting there to be a couple of random strays. Some wildly unecessary nerfs that no one's expecting. Maybe Splat Roller gets an ink effieciency nerf or something. idk.
I could see Reef-lux being hit with something as well. Maybe like a sidegrade? Nerfing the paint and buffing it's fighting capabilities. The devs seem to like doing that to reefie.

 

[OnePotWonder]

I see several nerfs coming.

Pencil will get its special output nerfed one way or another, most likely through a paint nerf.

Squeezer, I pray, will get a fire rate nerf. It would not only fix it being overpowered, but also alleviate its mashing problems.
Range Blaster will almost definitely get a blast radius nerf.
Splatana Stamper is once again on the chopping block. I agree with Chara's prediction of a horizonal slash ink consumption nerf.
Slosher as a main weapon probably isn't getting nerfs, but the vanilla kit is likely getting 10 more points for special.

Wellstring V could definitely have its ink efficiency shaved down.
And on the topic of stringers, they might finally nerf REEF-LUX's paint.
I doubt Nintendo will nerf any of their beloved short-range shooters, as much as I'd like to see them out of the meta completely.

The main nerfs I see coming are Tri-Zooka startup and Triple Inkstrike recharge cooldown.
It's possible that they'll nerf Tacticooler in this patch as well, though what that entails we'll have to wait and see.
I also hope Splash Wall gets a significant HP nerf.

 

[DzNutsKong]

Final predictions that will inevitably be wrong...

• Squeezer - Increased the time to go from firing to swimming from 4 -> 7 frames - This weapon is excessively overtuned and I think just making its frame data a bit worse is the way they should approach it here. I doubt they'd want to mess with fire rate in any way because Squeezer players need to match a highly specific rhythm right now and increasing the time between shots even by a little would throw that off massively. This would still work to make the weapon feel a lot slower at everything it does without damaging that.
• Splattershot Nova - Decreased shot deviation by 10% - Wildcard buff that I could see happening. This weapon currently has a special spam problem, isn't very popular, and in all honesty kind of sucks just in general. This is a similar buff to what we've seen on other weapons fairly recently that pushes them to incentivize fighting just a little bit more while combatting this issue.
• Wellstring V - Object damage decreased to 70% - Not a change I personally would make, but this weapon currently breaks a lot of this game's design. Having one on your team practically guarantees you pop the Rainmaker shield and you can do some absolutely ridiculous things to HP specials. It should still be a very strong aspect of the weapon but right now it's a bit overtuned.
• Splatana Stamper - Vertical slash hitboxes appear after 15 -> 17 and 18 -> 20 frames - The exact numbers on the frames for this and Squeezer are a bit arbitrary and could definitely be changed. They've nerfed this weapon time and time again only for it to still sit on top. It's still not the absolute most popular weapon in Japan specifically but that didn't stop it before. They've nerfed its paint output, points for special, and ink efficiency only for none of it to end up working, and I think their last resort will have to be this. Only argument I could see for it staying unchanged is that midline diversity is at an all-time high right now and Stamper isn't "outclassing" anything.
  
  
• Triple Inkstrike - Same cooldown nerf that was given to Tenta Missiles earlier on - I'm sure Nintendo's seen just how spammable Triple Inkstrike is at this point. Neo Splash in particular has gotten to a point where it can afford to play a bit more passively than I'd like to imagine they're okay with.
  
  
• Snipewriter 5H - 210 -> 220 - Yeah this is all we're going to get. It's the best Tacticooler option in the game right now but that slot has gotten a bit more competitive with N-ZAP and Heavy Edit usage getting a bit higher again, plus the rare coolerless teams seeing play.
• Custom Range Blaster - 200 -> 210 - CRB has been exceptionally strong in competitive and especially solo environments and I don't think Nintendo's going to be able to properly attribute this to the main weapon. This kit's more popular but not necessarily that much better right now.
• Custom E-Liter 4k - 210 -> 220 - I'm a bit iffy on this one. It's been very strong in solo play but not as much so in competitive play as of late and it just doesn't sound right that Custom E-Liter of all things would be one of four 220p weapons in the game.
• N-ZAP '89 - 170 -> 160 - I'm being dead serious. I think Nintendo likes where '85 is right now and thinks '89 being nowhere to be seen in Turf War, the place where Super Chump is at its strongest, is a bit of a tell that something isn't working synergistically. They're not touching Autobomb, there's not many more changes they could make to the main weapon to make it suit Super Chump better, and basically every other support shooter is very good right now save Aerospray which can't really be fixed. I could absolutely see this being 160 even though it's a really stupid idea.
• Mini Splatling - 190 -> 180 - There's always an oddball choice or two in these. This one has what should be a very strong kit for lower levels of play but is seeing exceptionally low usage despite that.
• H-3 Nozzlenose - 190 -> 180 - This weapon has been completely out of the running for a team's Tacticooler option. Dynamo Roller has been buffed recently, Dapple has at least been strong in solo play, but this weapon has nothing. Extremely small playerbase and basically zero viability right now. Tacticooler is definitely on the forefront of Nintendo's minds, this weapon has seen repeated buffs and this just adds onto that.
  
  
• Object Shredder - Splash Wall multiplier increased from 150% -> 200% - One of the more out-there predictions here for sure. With last season's approach I can't imagine Nintendo wanting to directly nerf Splash Wall that much as opposed to introducing more counterplay to it. I don't even hate what Nintendo tried in the last patch even if the execution was horrible. Stealth Jump is very popular right now and in their eyes it might be nice to lightly nudge certain weapons just a little bit more towards running something else. If nothing else, them doing this would also mitigate how much Wellstring feels directly nerfed as opposed to just put more in line with the rest of the game, and it still would leave it with a very clear strong matchup into Splash Wall weapons.

I guess I'll go over some notable omissions too...

• Trizooka - Let's be honest with ourselves here. Nintendo is probably fine with the way Trizooka currently is. They've had plenty of chances to nerf it again but have taken none of them.
• Tacticooler - This is another one I'm not fully certain on. For what it's worth, I'm leaning towards it being unchanged outside of Pencil nerfs. We've seen them continually try to buff supportive specials to basically no avail. Big Bubbler is a lot better right now, but it more takes up one of a team's aggressive specials than truly function in the flexible way that I imagine Nintendo wants for it, and this says nothing about Ink Vac or anything else. I'm leaning towards Nintendo also being fine with the state this one's currently in.
• Slosher - The best AoE weapon but not to a degree that I think Nintendo would notice or really is even that negative for the game. The Triple Inkstrike nerf would probably be enough if anything but even if we don't get a nerf I doubt Nintendo would care about this one.
• Splat Brella - I was on the fence about this thing getting more buffs but it's seen enough experimentation at least earlier on for me to not think it'll get anything. Bit too soon after a buff anyways.
• Any subweapons - Not happening lmao

Most of these feel like safer predictions though hence why I said they'll definitely be wrong. No way they'll get all of them and some weirder things will definitely pop up. I'm interested to see what we'll get though and will definitely be content if not much changes either way.

 

[briank913]

I'm kinda thinking that they may give an endlag cooldown to Trizooka instead actually, but Tristrike is also possible.

 

[Grushi]

Predictioooooons part one: the NERFS:

• Squeezer: 10% less range on the long range mode
  Squeezer is HOPEFULLY getting something, and honestly? I don't even think a one frame fire rate nerf would be enough, I'm dead serious. The cross map mobility death laser is the bigger problem, and I doubt they'd tone back its mobility, or mess with the mashing requirement, so less range's my bet. I'm praying they don't just increase the ink consumption.
• Splatana Stamper: 5% less range on the charge slash
  I don't think it'll get hit as hard as squeezer, since it's not as dominant in solo and even comp, but its charge slash has pretty unhinged range, so why not.
• Range Blaster: Blast radius reduced by 5%
  Super popular solo and comp weapon, I think that's a pretty obvious nerf to do, and anything else would probably make the weapon feel horrible.
  
  
• Splash Wall: Max HP reduced from 800 to 700
  This is my biggest copium of these predictions because it would make wall bearable to fight with tent. Is it gonna happen? I doubt it, to me they either nerf 52 or wall and the devs historically don't like nerfing shooters.
  
  
• Trizooka: Maximum damage reduced from 220 to 160
  If it's true that the devs can't easily increase the startup, I'm expecting a weird change, so I'll make it so zooka doesn't kill through spawn armor, deals less object damage (notably to crab) and can be parried, which would honestly be decently impactful.
  
• Snipewriter 5H: 210 > 220p. I'm with deez, not expecting any main weapon nerf, nintendo doesn't like nerfing weapons they've purposefully made good before, and they've clearly tried making this thing better.
• Slosher: 200 > 210p. I think nintendo likes this weapon, but it needs some nerf, I'd be surprised if it came away unscathed.

Part two, the buffs. I honestly think I predicted too many buffs, I'm sure there's only going to be like, three, but hey, maybe this will be a big patch, fingers crossed:

• Splattershot pro: Increased strafe speed by 6%
  I feel like nintendo tends to buff alternatives to the weapons they nerf to compensate, so I'm betting on a pro mobility buff.
• H-3 nozzlenose: Ink consumption reduced by 10%
  Same principle, I really don't think the ink consumption is that bad on H3 but it could use something.
• Flingza Roller: Minimum damage dealt by the vertical flick increased from 40 to 45
  I haven't seen much flingza lately, so I think it might get something.
• Heavy Splatling: Shot spread reduced by 10% while grounded
  It's random but they haven't touched this weapon in forever, so I could see it.
• Dread Wringer: Endlag reduced by 2 frames
  This weapon's fallen off for obvious reasons, so I have a hunch it's on the radar.
• Undercover Brella: Max damage from a single shot increased from 40 to 45
  This is the brella that's gonna get buffed, and I will be sad about it.
  
  
• Ink storm: Storm radius increased by 5%
  None of the storm weapons see any relevant use, so screw it.
• Ink vac: Shot velocity increased by 50%
  I think the devs will buff vac, but in a funny way, so make the shot super fast.
  
  
• Ballpoint Splatling Nouveau: 200 > 190p
  Almost every vac weapon got a pfs buff at this point, go for it
• Octobrush: 200 > 190p
  This will replace stamper trust

The omissions:

• Triple Inkstrike: I don't think the devs know this special is a problem yet to be honest, it's not dominant in solo aside from slosher.
• Neo Splash: It's very recently skyrocketed in use but same thing, mostly in comp, and we haven't seen it in many nintendo tournaments.
• .52 Gal: Will 52 ever not be overtuned? If you ask me, no.
• Wave Breaker: I could MAYBE see the devs buffing it if they nerf Range Blaster, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[Aiko.Octo]

I love these threads because they're so fun to look back on after the patch notes actually come out.

I am no good at predicting though, only wishing. Y'all have such well thought out highly specific actually-plausible-sounding ideas though.

I think historically the patches have come the day before the season ends? So I'd guess that the actual patch drops with a maintenance that occurs around 9PM ET Friday night, meaning we'll see actual patch notes late thursday night or friday morning. (That said, given we're not getting a 'real' new season this time (sadface) it wouldn't surprise me too much if they changed up the usual pattern of things either.)

I am really curious what they are going to do with the catalogs. Like will drizzle 2024's catalog just be 1:1 to drizzle 2022? will they remix it a bit? Will there just be no catalogs at all? Will they introduce a totally new set of catalogs that just doesn't have anything new in it? (This has nothing to do with nerf predictions I'm sorry but it is the thing I am most curious about what they will do.)