So, I was bored and I started to calculate the odds of getting perfect/pure/whatever you call three slot gear with the same sub ability in each slot. There are 13 different acquirable sub abilities the different brands give a 5x better chance for a certain sub ability and half the probability of getting a different sub. So now we have 5 of one ability, 1/2 of one, and the 11 others. That makes 16.5 the total pool. So you have 5/16.5 or 30.303030303030.....% chance of getting the dominant sub ability on a single slot of that gear. For that to occur three times the probability would be 5/16.5 * 5/16.5 * 5/16.5 which is about 2.78264741%. I'm pretty sure these odds are wrong. There is too much perfect/pure gear out there for the probability to only be 3%. Either i'm confused about how ability rolling in Splatoon works, or I did some math wrong. Someone want to correct me?
Someone please tell me these aren't the right odds
- Thread starter SlimeTech
- Start date
Of Moose & Men
Inkling Fleet Admiral
Lol, when you save scum time and time again, rolling as many as 100-200 times for one shiny, it's very much possible. Not extremely possible, but possible nonetheless.
Inky Corruption
Full Squid
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- ShaneTC
If you think that's bad, try rolling some non-brand native triples. You have a 0.0002% chance of rolling what you want. This is why people save-scum: because we want to get the abilities we want before the NX is released, ha.
Of Moose & Men
Inkling Fleet Admiral
Anaru
Inkling Cadet
They are, so most people save scum to get perfect gear. Pure/Shiny gear takes like almost 5000 times I think, so the only logical way to get that gear is to order from someone who has the first 2 slots as perfect and then level it up and hope the last slot is the same, which is 0.5% (about 200 tries). That still seems low but it's a large improvement from 0.02% (about 5000 tries), I got really lucky and got a pure squash headband on my first try yesterday, and I only have 5 perfect gears XD
Anaru
Inkling Cadet
One time it took me 2 hours to get triples, once it took me 10 minutes, I got my pure squash headband on my first spike order attempt, odds mean nothing
DekuKitty
Pro Squid
Those odds are why savescumming is a thing. Damn you Spyke!!!
Anaru
Inkling Cadet
Is there any way to save scum gear from Spyke so you can keep trying to get pure gear from generating the last slot after you know the first two will be the thing you want, or to try to get the 3 slots already filled chance? I'm pretty sure the gear and slots are generated right when you press order, but does anyone know some kind of trick to make it work?
EDIT: I realized that if you had way too much time and money, you could buy about 300 SD cards, copy data from console to each card, and order from each card separately, then the next day, check through every card, and since you have 2 0.5% chances to get pure gear (instant 3 slot or 2 slots and getting the perk from leveling up gear) you could actually save scum spike orders, but that is VERY inefficient.
EDIT: I realized that if you had way too much time and money, you could buy about 300 SD cards, copy data from console to each card, and order from each card separately, then the next day, check through every card, and since you have 2 0.5% chances to get pure gear (instant 3 slot or 2 slots and getting the perk from leveling up gear) you could actually save scum spike orders, but that is VERY inefficient.
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Inky Corruption
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- ShaneTC
That's some high-level save-scumming right there. Notes taken.
Ambunny
Inkling
The odds are low, but like others have said, ordering triple shiny gear is probably what makes it appear most often! Save scumming is a thing too. Despite that, I've seen some really neat unorderable rolls that were either a LOT of scumming, or maybe just plain lucky--it happens, I've witnessed it! I was rerolling a few times with snails from the last Splatfest on my school outfit just to get something better for my set, hoping for a decent double, but then my jaw dropped when it stopped on triple swim speed.
Definitely not expecting that, but it was so awesome! I wish "unorderable" gear was orderable if you already owned it, so we could share the good luck with others.
karl childers
Full Squid
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I think your calculations were correct. 2.78264741% is about 1 out of 36 - which seems to cohere with what I've experienced. Here is what I've gathered so far:
To get a triple on gear from brands that don't have a common ability (i.e. amiibo, Cuttlegear, Famitsu, The SQUID GIRL) it is 1 out of 2197 (1/13 x 1/13 x 1/13).
To get a triple on gear from brands that do have a common ability, and it's for that common ability, it is about 1 out of 36 (5/16.5 x 5/16.5 x 5/16.5).
To get a triple on gear from brands that do have a common ability, and it's not for that common ability, it is about 1 out of 4492 (1/16.5 x 1/16.5 x 1/16.5).
I really hope they change the system to where you can re-roll individual slots. As it currently stands, this system of having to re-roll 3 slots at a time really only hurts the casual players. The hardcore competitive players will stop at nothing to get the optimal set of abilities, even if they have to spend day & night, night after night until they get it. While casual players probably aren't willing to re-roll a certain gear 4492 times just to get an ideal load-out.
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I thought the same and was planning to do it with two or three usb drives, not going for that 0.5% but for that 9.5% instead (2 subs), but they told me it doesn't work: http://squidboards.com/threads/am-i-doing-it-wrong-savescumming-to-get-pure-gear.20736/
btw, I'm still trying to get that 9.5% on a gear I've been ordering non-stop for weeks now. It's getting annoying.