And also, even if what you said is 100% correct, I want to play the game! Why should I have to stop playing the game I purchased just because the matchmaking sucks and I don't want to make it worse by continuing playing through a losing streak? :)
It may be a way to discourage people from succumbing to the Gambler's Fallacy, which I admit I can be quite prone to (and is a major reason why I do not gamble). I don't think that's the reason though, as giving people losing streaks only encourages Gambler's Fallacy.
Something I have noticed, however, is that the higher your number within a rank, the more likely the game will put you into a losing streak, and it will continue until you stop playing.
In my experience, Nintendo favors the Japanese market over international ones. I wouldn't call that populist per se, as they focus on what appeals to a specific market and don't make much effort to appease international markets. AFAIK in Japan, it is perfectly normal (and may actually be preferable) for gamers to meet up at a physical location to play multiplayer games together. In that scenario, Nintendo would favor local play over online play because the demand in their key market simply isn't there. If a group of friends want to play together, they meet up and play together. Nintendo has always focused on local play, and I don't see them breaking that tradition overnight, especially if online play isn't a priority for their key consumer base. There is also the whole "family friendly gaming" vs " random people shrieking obscenities at each other" thing too. Nintendo has kept their image as "family friendly" a priority, and online play will certain rock that boat. I wouldn't be surprised if the higher ups were gunshy about associating their company with the whole "CoD Player" crowd.
That's a very good point. Arcades are still quite popular in Japan, though my sources from Japan say that they're slowly getting centralized into large urban areas, and Nintendo focusing on the Japanese market is certainly one of the reasons people are deeming the Wii U a failure in the west--it's definitely no failure in Japan, where Wii U games regularly make a lot of the top 30 week to week (and
Splatoon only fell out of the top 10 once ever since it was released).
Still, that doesn't affect the decision between P2P-based and server-based matchmaking, and I would say Nintendo chose P2P because it's more accessible and allows a greater number of people to play.