What can Splatoon do to break Splatoon's problem with Splatfest in America?

[NotAPerso]

Is there really big difference between the two ideas. Kids (or less experienced players in general) make up the majority population. If you are choosing the less popular side you essential are picking the team kids aren't picking.
The greater problem is the number of people with said mentality, take a look at our first Splatfest, completely lopsided popularity but the win difference was of only 2%.

There was also a smaller player base and the skill difference between the better players and not so good players was much smaller because everyone was new to the game. So comparing the first splatfest held to the most recent will only show how big the skill divide has come.

 

[Fightersword]

This is exactly what I said would happen if win%'s point gain was overly buffed back when people were complaining because 'popularity is too powerful'. Of course back then the win% difference was much smaller because there wasn't such a skill split, so popularity made a larger difference. I predicted, correctly so, that the skill difference would grow over time and the point divisions at that time wouldn't be such a problem in the future and would balance themselves out, maybe with minor tweaks at most. But people kept complaining and changes were made, and now popularity is so underscored in comparison that, combined with the skill split, it basically means nothing.

Now people are mad because popularity essentially makes no difference with how things go down, so all the good players end up on one side by figuring out where most of the kids will go, and crush the new people in an event that isn't even supposed to be competitive (that's what tournaments and squadding are for) but instead is for fun.

What did you expect? This is what many of you asked for back when splatfests were new. Enjoy your predictable results and your overabundance of sea snails.

 

[Leronne]

I just wanted to say... these are pretty easy to predict for NA, due to cultural differences from other countries. xD

Coffee. Because America. Most kids probably don't even know what tea is.
Chocolate. Because America.
Urban vs Rural is a toss up, because they also probably don't know what this means.
Country.
Fantasy.
Movies vs. Television; toss up
Fast Food
Cooking by Oneself vs someone else; toss up, though I suspect oneself, because overconfidence
Learn Many Languages
Comedy
Sweet Foods
Taiyaki vs Takoyaki; toss up, because 'murica.

I guess there are a couple toss-ups in there. But yea, it's alot harder than you'd think to think up truly ambiguous themes.

You have to keep in mind that there are Canadian, Latin-American and Caribbean (me being one of them) players thrown in the mix. Sure the US is the majority, but that doesn't mean they're the only factor in which team will win.

 

[PrinceOfKoopas]

Is there really big difference between the two ideas. Kids (or less experienced players in general) make up the majority population. If you are choosing the less popular side you essential are picking the team kids aren't picking.
The greater problem is the number of people with said mentality, take a look at our first Splatfest, completely lopsided popularity but the win difference was of only 2%.

The difference is that one explanation wants to eliminate the reporting of an entire statistic, and the other explanation says the problem will happen regardless if the statistic is reported or not, so we should keep that statistic publicly available.

 

[Award]

Is there really big difference between the two ideas. Kids (or less experienced players in general) make up the majority population. If you are choosing the less popular side you essential are picking the team kids aren't picking.
The greater problem is the number of people with said mentality, take a look at our first Splatfest, completely lopsided popularity but the win difference was of only 2%.

Juicy Juice vs. Single Origin Sumatra.

The Sumatra will be more popular, kids will pick Juicy Juice. It's not really true that the most popular has the less skilled players. It really depends which percentage of EITHER team consists of more skilled players. It's entirely possible for them to be evenly split in the most/less popular team if they can't tell which one has a higher chance of winning.

 

[Award]

The difference is that one explanation wants to eliminate the reporting of an entire statistic, and the other explanation says the problem will happen regardless if the statistic is reported or not, so we should keep that statistic publicly available.

I think we have to look at another point that gets lost in the mix too. What is it we actually are aiming for. Some people seem to argue as though the win rate is not the real goal and that popularity is the meat of the competition, or should compete equally. Some people seem to have completely opposing views on what the actual goal of the Splatfest even is supposed to be and feel that by being more popular, that team should win by default unless they fail obviously and miserably in battle.

If we can't even agree on what the actual system is supposed to be, it'll be hard to find a solution to fix it.

I'd also say that if we did shift it so poularity was what mattered most, picking "the most popular team" is even easier than picking which team will be most skilled given most of the themes. And I still believe picking the "less popular team" isn't as easy before the fest then we think it is when the results are in. How many didn't have strong doubts about either of the last two? My confidence was 60/40 for future v past. My confidence was 55/45 for nice v naughty. But Pizza was a lock from the start.

One other factor is time of day. On Team Past, Midnight Friday night through about 11:00 or 12:00PM Saturday afternoon, it was easy....opponents couldn't even aim. I hardly lost anything, and made it to King by 11:00 or so. BUT the skilled players on Team Future seemed to show up later in the day and then I started losing a lot. If I had only played in the afternoon my impression would have been that Team Future was going to win as they seemed superior. My guess is they were only superior for the last 1/3 of the event, meaning the skilled players weren't playing as long during the event, and it's quite possible most of the matches Future lost that lost them the game were actually scrubs v. scrubs on both teams.

 

[Vitezen]

Look at the conversation around you.

People are NOT picking "oh what's the least popular thing" people are picking "what will kids pick?"

You can have that discussion about which team will have LESSER-SKILLED PEOPLE without the Popularity stat existing.

I'm STRONGLY for working on the right problem, and not eliminating things that aren't part of the problem.

What? People who want to win are clearly picking the option with lower popularity rankings, because that has been the most consistent measure for victory. Whether that has to do with the number of kids or not is irrelevant, since I haven't actually seen any measure proving that one is more popular with kids, besides things like Miiverse posts.

The only consistent, provable method of picking the team most likely to win as of now is to guess which will have less popularity. You can speculate on which will have more kids, and you may be right, but you would have to prove it.

 

[Award]

provable method of picking the team most likely to win as of now is to guess which will have less popularity.

And that bit is probably the most important one. It is still just a guess. So far it has been a consistent guess but there's no hard determining factor making one side "the winning side" but to GUESS which will be. Meaning that guess can still be wrong, and inevitably it will be at some point, and then that system becomes questioned and balances out a little. So far the guess works and makes a self fulfilling prophecy if the majority of skilled players choose it. Then again like you said, those who "want to win" aren't guaranteed to be the skilled players.

Since it's just a guess, and since the "bad" players will start joining that same team, its' a problem that would adjust and flop and balance itself over time. (Hold your ears for all the raging that will happen the day it shifts.)

The question is will splatfests run long enough for any of that to matter? They killed new content in 8 months, we can presume NX is announced in 5, "Splatoon 2" my or may not exist, may or may not be a third person team shooter, and may or may not be a mobile game with toe wiggle based controls using the camera. Nintendo generally doesn't like repeating itself without changing things up massively. Smash and Kart being the only two exceptions, and Smash is because of Sakurai.

 

[Nero86]

I'll be honest here, to avoid playing frustrating matches for hours I just choose my team based on what I see on reddit. At splatfest morning I open it and find which team have more angry posts, then I choose the other ones. That normally works for me and makes things easier.

The whole thing like choosing the option that appeals the most to me is over, x6 to win is a heavy burden that I don't want to risk.

 

[Astral]

If the idea that "Kids pick the more popular team", then i guess we could look at the multiplier as some sort of handicap or buff. x3 multiplier seems the most balanced

 

[Award]

How did reddit become 4chan?

 

[Zombie Aladdin]

I guess there are a couple toss-ups in there. But yea, it's alot harder than you'd think to think up truly ambiguous themes.

Of course. It was a brainstorming session for me. I can't help but feel some of your predictions are based on children's preferences though, which can be quite different from teenagers' or adults' preferences. Children more often prefer comedy (or at least, it's harder to write something for children that doesn't have comedy in it), whereas adults lean more towards drama.

Pirates v Ninjas had a WAY bigger divide than I'd ever have imagined.

I had predicted Team Ninjas would be much more popular because of one single reason: Naruto. You still have a ninja-related franchise that's very popular among kids right now. The last pirate-related franchise to catch on was Pirates of the Caribbean and, pardon the pun, the ship had sailed. (SpongeBob SquarePants doesn't count; its focus is undersea life.)

I'll be honest here, to avoid playing frustrating matches for hours I just choose my team based on what I see on reddit. At splatfest morning I open it and find which team have more angry posts, then I choose the other ones. That normally works for me and makes things easier.

The whole thing like choosing the option that appeals the most to me is over, x6 to win is a heavy burden that I don't want to risk.

Do those six extra Super Sea Snails mean that much? (Also, not every losing team in a Splatfest gets a frustrating experience. Team Future had a much smoother ride than Team Nice, for instance.)

 

[PrinceOfKoopas]

What? People who want to win are clearly picking the option with lower popularity rankings, because that has been the most consistent measure for victory. Whether that has to do with the number of kids or not is irrelevant, since I haven't actually seen any measure proving that one is more popular with kids, besides things like Miiverse posts.

The only consistent, provable method of picking the team most likely to win as of now is to guess which will have less popularity. You can speculate on which will have more kids, and you may be right, but you would have to prove it.

You're looking at the symptom, not the cause.

There is literally no cause and effect between “lower popularity” and “victory”. There's a damn strong correlation, but that's like saying “spending money makes you die faster” as something that's consistent and provable. (They happen to be spending money on cigarettes.)

 

[Flareth]

Do those six extra Super Sea Snails mean that much? (Also, not every losing team in a Splatfest gets a frustrating experience. Team Future had a much smoother ride than Team Nice, for instance.)

I guess in the long run, it doesn't matter, seeing as rerolls can still be done after your Sea Snail stock runs out. On the other hand, $30,000 is a bit pricey, especially since it's more-or-less a gamble in regards to what abilities you'll get.
Honestly, I think the extra snails were worth it back when the difference between winning & losing was 12 snails rather than 6. Now, playing for the extra snails seems just a tad bit overkill.

 

[SpaceCanary]

If people are truly trying to pick the team that they think has fewer kids, then all we need to do is pick themes that make it hard to do just that. Things like Cake vs. Pie, Cake vs. Ice Cream, or Chocolate vs. Vanilla for starters. Either that, or block players from viewing Splatfest-related info before choosing a side by making them choose up front, or blocking Splatfest Miiverse Posts and Splatfest Tee colors before choosing. (The first option is better, in my opinion.)

 

[Gameboy224]

If people are truly trying to pick the team that they think has fewer kids, then all we need to do is pick themes that make it hard to do just that. Things like Cake vs. Pie, Cake vs. Ice Cream, or Chocolate vs. Vanilla for starters. Either that, or block players from viewing Splatfest-related info before choosing a side by making them choose up front, or blocking Splatfest Miiverse Posts and Splatfest Tee colors before choosing. (The first option is better, in my opinion.)

Honestly, I'd predict Cake, Ice Cream, and Chocolate. Cakes are a bit more universal than pie, ice cream v cake is a bit of a toss up, chocolate would probably win for sure, kids love chocolate.

It's hard to come up with Splatfests that won't result in lopsided public opinions without having them be mundane. Honestly, I'd rather we move back to the 4x or to a 3x multiplier for wins which more or less allows both popularity and wins to play a substantial part as well as not having the win point differences be soul crushingly large.
The multiplier is large enough that wins can override popularity differences but a popularity difference can also overpower some win differences.

 

[Award]

I had predicted Team Ninjas would be much more popular because of one single reason: Naruto. You still have a ninja-related franchise that's very popular among kids right now. The last pirate-related franchise to catch on was Pirates of the Caribbean and, pardon the pun, the ship had sailed. (SpongeBob SquarePants doesn't count; its focus is undersea life.)

Pretty sure "normal" kids aren't watching Naruto. The kind of kids who know the difference between udon and tempura will watch Naruto. Not that it doesn't have a fan base here, but it's a bit Japanese for the average kid. However you're close: I forgot about the TMNT revival. And for the kids that DO watch Naruto, you'd have to contrast it with One Piece ;)

There is literally no cause and effect between “lower popularity” and “victory”. There's a damn strong correlation, but that's like saying “spending money makes you die faster” as something that's consistent and provable. (They happen to be spending money on cigarettes.)

+1

 

[Vitezen]

You're looking at the symptom, not the cause.

There is literally no cause and effect between “lower popularity” and “victory”. There's a damn strong correlation, but that's like saying “spending money makes you die faster” as something that's consistent and provable. (They happen to be spending money on cigarettes.)

So what are you suggesting is the problem? My only issue here was that having any sort of weight given to the popularity statistic implies it matters, when I don't think it should. I haven't made any attempt to address any other problem.

 

[PrinceOfKoopas]

So what are you suggesting is the problem? My only issue here was that having any sort of weight given to the popularity statistic implies it matters, when I don't think it should. I haven't made any attempt to address any other problem.

The problem is that it's easy to predict which side will have the more skilled players, and because the win multiplier keeps increasing, all you really have to do is predict which team will have the more skilled players and you'll be on the winning side.

And it just so happens that almost every time that team is Callie's.

People currently use “which theme would older people be more likely to pick” as a pretty reliable proxy for “which side will have the more skilled players.”

Popularity pretty much ALREADY doesn't matter, especially with a 6x win rate. With popularity being negligible (it's pretty much just a flavour factor right now), this means there is only one variable you need to take into account (the skill make-up of the teams).

If popularity actually meant something, there would be two variables to take into account and they'd counter one another, making it much harder to predict beforehand which team will win.

 

[Vitezen]

The problem is that it's easy to predict which side will have the more skilled players, and because the win multiplier keeps increasing, all you really have to do is predict which team will have the more skilled players and you'll be on the winning side.

And it just so happens that almost every time that team is Callie's.

People currently use “which theme would older people be more likely to pick” as a pretty reliable proxy for “which side will have the more skilled players.”

Popularity pretty much ALREADY doesn't matter, especially with a 6x win rate. With popularity being negligible (it's pretty much just a flavour factor right now), this means there is only one variable you need to take into account (the skill make-up of the teams).

If popularity actually meant something, there would be two variables to take into account and they'd counter one another, making it much harder to predict beforehand which team will win.

Oh okay, I see where you're coming from. I'm not interested in creating an unpredictable result by including extra variables. I would prefer if the only thing that mattered is wins.