Next US Splatfest: Pirates VS Ninjas

[SupaTim]

Can some one give me a tl:dr version of why Pirates arrrrrrr the winners?

 

[Of Moose & Men]

Because we won more games. 59% of them to be exact.

 

[SupaTim]

Because we won more games. 59% of them to be exact.

D'oh. I knew I should have been more specific.

I got that part. I want to know why these people are arguing and why did pirates win more games?

 

[cwjakesteel]

Why are we assuming that the proportions of the skill levels of the players in each of the teams are the same? Because of the nature of Splatfests, this is unlikely to be the case because the demographics of each of the two teams would be different from each other. This would explain how an incredibly popular team like Team Ninja would have less skilled players. There's too much focus on the fact that Team Pirates's win percentage was higher instead of the reasons for the win percentage being higher in the first place.
It's unfortunate that popularity is now a nearly insignificant factor in Splatfests because of the increase in the win percentage multiplier from 4 to 6. If one team had a greater popularity percentage and a greater win percentage, then that team would have won anyways. If the difference between the win percentages is greater than or equal to 18% like it was in the previous Splatfest, then it's completely impossible to beat the team with the most wins. Even if the difference in the win percentages weren't that large, it still demonstrates how much of an effect that wins currently have. It also doesn't help that some people chose Team Pirates because they supposed that the opposing team being much more popular would ironically give them an advantage. Splatfests as they are now are very flawed, probably just as much as, if not more than, they were at the beginning.

Yea. With popularity needs to have a bigger effect imo. With the splatfest Ninja vs. Pirates, Pirates would have still won with a x3 multiplier instead of a x6.

So the question is at what percent win do we want Population to determine the win?

With a 70:30 population, should the 30 population with with 59% wins? Or do they need at least 60% wins?

I don't like the idea of a meta building where people just pick the team they think is least popular. I want to win because poeple who like Pirates are better than people who like Ninjas, not because of the meta.

But another problem is that I would want to pick the least popular team anyway, because I don't like waiting for mirror matches.

 

[MissingNumbers]

Also, Callie's record improves to 15-5 and she's now on a 7 win streak! Truely the superior Squid Sister!

There's a significant difference between having a good personality and liking a certain thing.

 

[Of Moose & Men]

D'oh. I knew I should have been more specific.

I got that part. I want to know why these people are arguing and why did pirates win more games?

Oh, lol, well, that's the only actual reason. There is no secret silver lining reason. People just refuse to believe X team lost because Y team beat them.

With that said, I'm gonna weigh in like I have in another thread. Popularity should be used only, and I mean absolutely no other reason other than to decide the winner in the extremely rare case that the Splatfest win rates result in a tie.

The Superbowl isn't decided based on how many fans each team has. Football has Overtime, Splatfest doesn't, and there needs to be a deciding factor. THAT is the only time Popularity should make a difference.

Choosing based entirely on popularity or lack there of is stupid as there is no scientific algorithm showing that the team with less popularity wins the Splatfest in the end as it has been split down the middle. Pick what team you want. Simple as that.

If you lose, live with it.

 

[SupaTim]

But there does seem to be some correlation between the more popular team being the one with the fewer wins. I believe this has only ever NOT been the case once here in NA. Is this because the concentration of good players is higher with less popularity? So, even if both teams have the same amount of good players the more populous team will be diluted?

That seems to be the argument here, and I've sorta gotten lost in all the text.

Maybe we'll never know...

 

[Of Moose & Men]

Well, according to all of our previous Splatfests, 3 of 7 winning teams were less popular. So, it's not really showing anything. If it were something like 5 of 7 I'd understand, but it's not. It's barely less than half, I don't believe that is anywhere near enough to go off of. In Japan ironically enough, the most popular Team has won every Splatfest but 1. Further proving there is no rhythm or rhyme, just pick the team you prefer. Simple as that.

 

[MissingNumbers]

Well, according to all of our previous Splatfests, 3 of 7 winning teams were less popular. So, it's not really showing anything. If it were something like 5 of 7 I'd understand, but it's not. It's barely less than half, I don't believe that is anywhere near enough to go off of.

There's still one more piece of the puzzle to consider, though. That being Splatfests with a popularity score so ridiculous that fighting their own team is an inevitability. Yes, those games don't seem like they'd matter in the long run, but it can limit actual play time.

 

[Zombie Aladdin]

Why are we assuming that the proportions of the skill levels of the players in each of the teams are the same? Because of the nature of Splatfests, this is unlikely to be the case because the demographics of each of the two teams would be different from each other. This would explain how an incredibly popular team like Team Ninja would have less skilled players. There's too much focus on the fact that Team Pirates's win percentage was higher instead of the reasons for the win percentage being higher in the first place.

What was going on between me, cwjakesteel, and MrL1193 was a hypothetical situation where both teams have exactly the same distribution of skill. The emphasis is hypothetical, to prove that if this was the case, then the Splatfest results would be different than it turned out or if it was the same and should be expected.

Since the conclusion is that the win rates would be equal if both sides had equal distribution of skill, regardless of the teams' sizes (barring extreme cases), it suggests there is some other reason why minority teams tend to have higher win rates in American Splatfests.

Bear in mind, also, that the inverse is true with Japanese Splatfests: The more popular team predominantly wins in those. With European Splatfests, there's seemingly no correlation between popularity and win rates.

Well, according to all of our previous Splatfests, 3 of 7 winning teams were less popular. So, it's not really showing anything. If it were something like 5 of 7 I'd understand, but it's not. It's barely less than half, I don't believe that is anywhere near enough to go off of. In Japan ironically enough, the most popular Team has won every Splatfest but 1. Further proving there is no rhythm or rhyme, just pick the team you prefer. Simple as that.

It's not an issue of which teams won the Splatfests, but which ones had the higher win rate. 6 out of 7 American Splatfests have had the minority team winning more often. Art vs. Science is so far the only one where the more popular team also won more often.

 

[MissingNumbers]

Art vs. Science is so far the only one where the more popular team also won more often.

And it was also the closest Splatfest to date, so that probably says something.

 

[Zombie Aladdin]

And it was also the closest Splatfest to date, so that probably says something.

Well, as far as populrity and win rates taken independently. Taken together, the closest Splatfest is the American one right afterwards, Cars vs. Planes, with a 4-point difference in their final scores. (Art vs. Science ended with a 10-point difference.0

However, I do believe there being about the same number of people on both sides means the minority-wins rule of American Splatfests either don't aply or are diminished to where it's insignificant.

The stark differences in these trends between regions leads me to believe it's an issue of player behavior between regions.

 

[Myst]

You know, this discussion about wins, losses, pie charts, diagrams, team proportions is cool and all, but let's all just remember this is all in good fun as well. I primarily pick a team because i like it, and if i don't care for either of them, I pick based on color. That's why I chose Decepticons hilariously, because otherwise, I know next to nothing about transformers, but my favorite colors are pink and purple. This time, I chose pirates. As cool are ninja's are, I've always been a fan of pirates since my time in High School and believe it or not, I lost a good number of matches as a pirate. Sometimes, I was in awe at how we got pushed back to spawn or how well coordinated some of the teams were. Sometimes, I was destroyed and other times I wasn't killed at all and got a good number of kills in a match. But either way, I still had fun during this Splatfest and that's what counts (I believe). I got to play with new people, learn new techniques, discover mistakes I'd make and even brought along a weapon I had never tried before. I guess what I'm trying to say is, this discussion, it's cool and all, but remember guys, we're all here to have at least a little fun aren't we? I respect the discussion, but it just seemed to be getting a little heavy on the win/losses and I wouldn't be surprised if some people haven't commented because they felt confused or didn't feel as though they could add to it.

There were wins and losses to both sides, and at some points, I thought ninja was going to take this but I played anyway because I love this game. I'm sure you guys do as well. I will say, I do like the x4 multiplier better myself though. With that, I will continue to lurk the thread because math past Trig was never my strong suit. Stay fresh~

(P.S. I am by no means a skilled player (only up to B+), so I'm probably one of those lower skilled ones that do decently from time to time, but I have fun. I am by no means a kid either and I'm sure there's others like that as well. But hey, if discussing this is actually fun rather then stressful then by all means. Just seems stressful to me. /sails away )

 

[LimitCrown]

Participating in the Splatfests is fun, but it's just disappointing when you can predict the outcome in advance.

I very recently noticed that Team Ninjas and Team Pirates had the highest and lowest win percentages, respectively, out of all of the other teams that were in Splatfests.

 

[BulkyJam]

Ayyyy, this is the Splatfest that made me start fiending for this game, so welcome aboard, I guess :D

Now if only the map rotation could be cool for once, I'm so sick of Moray Towers ffs

But yeah, add me up if you wanna play, I'd love to play non-pubbies for once

 

[mezzo]

as far as the results of the splatfest goes... i feel like the way they calculated the winner was fair. i think it's much more reasonable to declare a winner based on skill rather than popularity, otherwise there'd be no point in the splatfest at all. i feel like they should lower the multiplier for wins vs. losses, though. ultimately, the pirates had more wins than the ninjas, despite being less popular. these are the facts. it really did surprise me how many more people picked ninja than pirate, though. i thought it'd be much more equal than that.

 

[Zombie Aladdin]

The last really big showing of pirates in the American mainstream was Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, which was four years ago, long enough for it to not be a hot topic anymore (but still recognizable). Things may change with Dead Men Tell No Tales for 2017 though.

In contrast, Naruto is still very active in the American mainstream, and will continue to be for as long as Studio Pierrot drags out the ending. This is reinforced by there being a huge deal about Masashi Kishimoto, author of the manga, at New York Comic-Con and the premiere of Boruto. That, and Kishimoto asking everyone to leave him alone.

 

[Lonely_Dolphin]

There's a significant difference between having a good personality and liking a certain thing.

Uh, ok? o_O If you're trying to imply Callie has a worse personality then you must not have read their news segments. Callie is better not because of anything she does specifically, but because of what she doesn't do, namely making fun of her sister constantly like Marie does.

 

[MissingNumbers]

Uh, ok? o_O If you're trying to imply Callie has a worse personality then you must not have read their news segments. Callie is better not because of anything she does specifically, but because of what she doesn't do, namely making fun of her sister constantly like Marie does.

Thing is, without Marie, there's no punchline, no significance to the segment. It might as well just be silence if both of them aren't there.

 

[Lonely_Dolphin]

Thing is, without Marie, there's no punchline, no significance to the segment. It might as well just be silence if both of them aren't there.

Umm I never said Marie should go, just that she's a worse person. The only thing I'd want gone is the mean spirited dialogue.