Next US Splatfest: Pirates VS Ninjas

[Of Moose & Men]

And Callie recognizes you're a sore loser.

smh

 

[DarkGold777]

Even Marie thinks all you pirates are cheats.

smh

Yes, use pre-determined text from a character who is obviously angry in a sore fashion to further prove that we were cheating despite no proof being shown of cheating.

Listen, people aren't going to show mercy just because someone on the other side disconnected, whether they are Pirates OR Ninjas, and that has been accepted as okay, not cheating (especially not intentionally). If anything, your friend looked worse for squidbagging strangers, which isn't as accepted as simply playing your best for 1 match even with the odds in favor of them and is actually controversial due to its origins.

We have provided plenty of counter-arguments, and you continue to throw accusations of cheating without your own counter-argument to prove our points wrong. Either give actual proof to your argument, or give up. All you're doing is making yourself look like a whiner over a small thing and jumping to an unrealistic conclusion.

 

[ChibiValshe]

Why so much salt? Everyone gets Super Sea Snails anyway...

 

[Topazrekerboy]

• Ok, I'm not gonna get into this arguement - I like rushing into the fray in Splatoon but not into an arguement that lasts for a long time
• I'm just here to say, GGs to Team ninjas for putting up a good fight, especially towards the end, but popularity isn't everything! Arrrrrr me harteees! It feels good to finally win a Splatfest after losing two Splatfests (I chose Science and Planes. At least Marie is happy. That's what matters :D) it's nice to have that winning feeling and not that I'm-gonna-break-a-chair-feeling after seeing the results of a Splatfest you lost!

(I can't remove the bullet points, they weren't supposed to be there, ignore them.)

 

[GreenKirby]

Even Marie thinks all you pirates are cheats.


smh

Cause clearly I'm gonna give a damn about what a bunch of 0s and 1s programmed to say whatever it is she's gonna say.

Also for all your whining about team pirates should show mercy because of disconnections, I doubt you would have done the same thing if someone on team pirate disconnected.

And then gamers wonder why no one takes them seriously.

 

[Deleted Member]

Shh, no salt. Only booty plundering now.

 

[Rellek]

Arrrrharharhar! Love how pirates won even with dwindling numbers. Show that we got more spirit than you ninjas anyways. Good games, but the booty be ours this night!

 

[Zombie Aladdin]

Listen, people aren't going to show mercy just because someone on the other side disconnected, whether they are Pirates OR Ninjas, and that has been accepted as okay, not cheating (especially not intentionally). If anything, your friend looked worse for squidbagging strangers, which isn't as accepted as simply playing your best for 1 match even with the odds in favor of them and is actually controversial due to its origins.

Indeed, I've had matches, not just in this Splatfest (but they definitely were there) where an opponent got disconnected, but the remaining team members still managed to turn the match around because we were no longer taking them seriousy. Similarly, and more often, we'd put the opponent in "Danger!" status within the first minute, and thinking the match is ours, I or a teammate (or multiple ones of us) will just go and ink stuff without splatting anyone or let them do their thing, or let someone go on behind us, only to regret it later when they bring us to "Danger!" status with 30 seconds remaining and never let up. In matches like these, I learned that even if the opponent is severely losing, you still stand a good chance of losing if you don't continue to keep the level of pressure you were at before.

In Turf War, losing doesn't mean anything, so even if we lose in that way, I don't care. In Splatfest, losing means a lower chance of our collective team losing the whole Splatfest.

By the way, I am the sort of person who believes matches are no fun if you're crushing your opponents. It's why I stopped playing Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed even though I placed 1st in about half the races I played: Once you're in the lead, it's near impossible to stop you. It's why I am no fan of the OTGs in Marvel vs. Capcom 3 as the mechanic leads to excessively long combos. And in any game I play, if there's nothing at stake and my opponent is clearly a beginner (or someone so casual they don't really know what they're doing), I'll go easy on them.

But even I know that when there IS something at stake, I cannot afford to let my guard down, because they can easily overrun me otherwise, and it's a chance I won't take.

 

[cwjakesteel]

Well, looks like we won! RAISE THE JOLLY ROGER! :D

Also, I noticed everyone jumping to the conclusion that Pirates would win because the bad players were on Ninjas due to overpopularity. I'm not sure if someone in this thread said something conflicting, but so far, all the Splatfest results in terms of win % have been double-digit numbers starting with either a 4 or a 5 in the first digit. Even more, I think this is the largest win % yet. I don't really think we ought to keep leaning towards the conclusion that the less popular team will win, since all win % results so far have been shown to be pretty close.

It's statistically true that the less popular team would win. If we assume everything is equal, AND that a majority of the players are bad/noob/mediocre, then the less popular team has the higher chance to win. It doesn't mean they will, but the less popular team IS in fact favoured.

I'd say it was almost a guaranteed win for Pirates since the popularity disparity was so big.

 

[Rellek]

It's statistically true that the less popular team would win. If we assume everything is equal, AND that a majority of the players are bad/noob/mediocre, then the less popular team has the higher chance to win. It doesn't mean they will, but the less popular team IS in fact favoured.

I'd say it was almost a guaranteed win for Pirates since the popularity disparity was so big.

How do you even figure that? Both teams have equal chances of winning because both teams have an equal amount of good and bad teams.

 

[cwjakesteel]

How do you even figure that? Both teams have equal chances of winning because both teams have an equal amount of good and bad teams.

Nope. I'm assuming both teams have an equal amount of good and bad players. The reason why the least popular team wins is because of mirror matches that don't count.

Maybe I'll draw a diagram. But with everything equal, the least popular team has the higher chance.

 

[Rellek]

Nope. I'm assuming both teams have an equal amount of good and bad players. The reason why the least popular team wins is because of mirror matches that don't count.

Maybe I'll draw a diagram. But with everything equal, the least popular team has the higher chance.

If mirror matches don't count then why are you counting them?

 

[cwjakesteel]

If mirror matches don't count then why are you counting them?

I'll draw the diagram for you. The reason why mirror matches count is because some of the good players might be caught up in them. Brb Having fun on MS Paint.

 

[Zombie Aladdin]

The bad players would be caught in them too, balancing everything out.

In fact, it was mathematically proven, earlier in this topic, that if both teams have perfectly equal proportions of master, great, good, and bad players, the Splatfest would result in a 50-50 win rate regardless of popularity. Here is the post below (I feel like I would've eventually had described this myself if I wasn't beaten to it so far in advance):

I'm getting really tired of seeing people claiming that same-team matchups somehow cause the more popular team to lose more matches. So...have an example, with lots of numbers.

Spoiler

For our hypothetical scenario, we'll start by imagining that a total of 300,000 four-player teams play at some point during Splatfest. (This is just for the sake of an example; don't take this estimate too seriously.)

Let's assume that Ninjas have a precisely 2:1 advantage in popularity--that is, there are exactly twice as many Ninja teams as there are Pirate teams. That's 200,000 Ninja teams and 100,000 Pirate teams.

Now let's make some assumptions about the skill of those teams. Let's assume that:

10% of all teams have an average rank of S
30% of all teams have an average rank of A
40% of all teams have an average rank of B
20% of all teams have an average rank of C

We'll assume that these proportions hold true for each team during the Splatfest. That means that, in total, there are:

10,000 S-rank Pirate teams
30,000 A-rank Pirate teams
40,000 B-rank Pirate teams
20,000 C-rank Pirate teams

and

20,000 S-rank Ninja teams
60,000 A-rank Ninja teams
80,000 B-rank Ninja teams
40,000 C-rank Ninja teams

Now let's take a look at what happens when these teams play against each other. Let's assume that the teams are rather dedicated and end up playing an average of 30 matches each, for a total of 4,500,000 matches. (Remember that it takes 2 teams to play 1 match.) And for the sake of easier calculation, let's assume that a higher-ranked team will always beat a lower-ranked one, and that the teams will win 50% of their matches against teams of equal rank.

Now, since there are twice as many Ninjas as there are Pirates, at any given time, only half of Team Ninja will be playing against Team Pirate. The other half of Team Ninja will be playing against themselves, Ninja vs. Ninja. That means that only half of the matches played by Ninja teams will count toward the final results of the Splatfest. The other half of their matches (1/3 of the total number of matches) can be disregarded, since they are played against their own team.

That means that the breakdown of the actual Pirate vs. Ninja matches will be as follows:

30,000 matches between S-rank Pirates and S-rank Ninjas - 15,000 wins for Pirates, 15,000 wins for Ninjas
90,000 matches between S-rank Pirates and A-rank Ninjas - 90,000 wins for Pirates
120,000 matches between S-rank Pirates and B-rank Ninjas - 120,000 wins for Pirates
60,000 matches between S-rank Pirates and C-rank Ninjas - 60,000 wins for Pirates

90,000 matches between A-rank Pirates and S-rank Ninjas - 90,000 wins for Ninjas
270,000 matches between A-rank Pirates and A-rank Ninjas - 135,000 wins for Pirates, 135,000 wins for Ninjas
360,000 matches between A-rank Pirates and B-rank Ninjas - 360,000 wins for Pirates
180,000 matches between A-rank Pirates and C-rank Ninjas - 180,000 wins for Pirates

120,000 matches between B-rank Pirates and S-rank Ninjas - 120,000 wins for Ninjas
360,000 matches between B-rank Pirates and A-rank Ninjas - 360,000 wins for Ninjas
480,000 matches between B-rank Pirates and B-rank Ninjas - 240,000 wins for Pirates, 240,000 wins for Ninjas
240,000 matches between B-rank Pirates and C-rank Ninjas - 240,000 wins for Pirates

60,000 matches between C-rank Pirates and S-rank Ninjas - 60,000 wins for Ninjas
180,000 matches between C-rank Pirates and A-rank Ninjas - 180,000 wins for Ninjas
240,000 matches between C-rank Pirates and B-rank Ninjas - 240,000 wins for Ninjas
120,000 matches between C-rank Pirates and C-rank Ninjas - 60,000 wins for Pirates, 60,000 wins for Ninjas

The remaining 1,500,000 matches are Ninja vs. Ninja matches, which have no effect on the win rates. In total:

4,500,000 total matches played

1,500,000 wins for Team Pirate
1,500,000 wins for Team Ninja
1,500,000 Ninja vs. Ninja matches (no effect on win rate for either team)

Conclusion: Ninja vs. Ninja matches do not skew the win rates in the final results because for each match that more skilled Ninjas play against other Ninjas (depriving Team Ninja of a win against Team Pirate), there is also a match that less skilled Ninjas play against other Ninjas (saving Team Ninja from a loss against Team Pirate).

If Pirates do manage to win more of the Pirate vs. Ninja matches, it will be because they have more skill overall, not because Ninjas were busy fighting themselves.

The only possible conclusions is that there is an imbalance in average skill between the teams: Either Team Pirates had a disproportionate amount of great players, Team Ninjas had a disproportionate amount of bad players, or both.

 

[Rellek]

The bad players would be caught in them too, balancing everything out.

In fact, it was mathematically proven, earlier in this topic, that if both teams have perfectly equal proportions of master, great, good, and bad players, the Splatfest would result in a tie regardless of popularity. Here is the post below (I feel like I would've eventually had described this myself if I wasn't beaten to it so far in advance):



The only possible conclusions is that there is an imbalance in average skill between the teams: Either Team Pirates had a disproportionate amount of great players, Team Ninjas had a disproportionate amount of bad players, or both.

This is what I'm talking about. It's not because of popularity. It is because pirates just had higher skill level people.

It kind of makes sense though. Only logical and smart people with sharp minds would choose pirates after all ;P

 

[cwjakesteel]

Also please note that I put "Ninjas CAN win" and "Pirates WIN". I.e. the bottom pie diagram showing the range of "ninjas can win" show the chance from 50% and upwards, while the other range called "Pirates win" shows where the chance to win a splatfest is very high.

 

[Zombie Aladdin]

You're using the wrong analogy there. Using a pie chart like that makes it seem like Ninja vs. Ninja matches are displacing Ninja vs. Pirates matches, and it also makes it seem like all the great players stick together and all the not-great players remain isolated.

While I had quoted a post from before showing that, mathematically, the win rate should be the same if the composition of skill is in equal proportion from both sides, I can provide another way to demonstrate it:

Since the popularity was approximately 1 Team Pirates member for every 3 Team Ninjas members, let's represent them with dice. Take 3 dice with the same number of sides. That will be Team Ninjas. Then, take a fourth die with the same number of sides. That will be Team Pirates.

Next up, the number on the dice's faces represent their skill level: The higher the number, the higher their skill level. This means both Team Ninjas and Team Pirates have equal distribution of skill.

Also, let's assume that when two teams meet, the team with the higher skill always wins.

Since the game randomly decides who will play against whom, you can simulate matches during this Splatfest by pairing up the dice. Each pair represents a match. Without looking, grab one die and then grab another, then roll them.

If it's Pirates vs. Ninjas, record which die had the higher number, and that is the winner of that match. If both dice land on the same number, pick a side for the winner, then alternate for each tie after that. If it's Ninjas vs. Ninjas, skip recording it because the results won't count towards the Splatfest as a whole.

As you record wins, keep a tally of how many wins each side has received.

You will see that, while at the beginning, one side may have a strong edge over another, as you continue to roll the dice, Team Pirates will be winning about the same number of matches as Team Ninjas. Hence, when skill is equally distributed between Team Ninjas and Team Pirates, wins will also be equally distributed between both teams.

Therefore, Team Pirates won either because Team Pirates was luckier than Team Ninjas, or, far more likely, the distribution of skill is uneven.

 

[MrL1193]

Also please note that I put "Ninjas CAN win" and "Pirates WIN". I.e. the bottom pie diagram showing the range of "ninjas can win" show the chance from 50% and upwards, while the other range called "Pirates win" shows where the chance to win a splatfest is very high.

Oh boy. This is going to take a while.

First of all, I'd like to ask you something... Did you actually read my earlier post, in which I crunched all the numbers to show what would actually happen if both teams had equal proportions of skilled and unskilled players? I went to a lot of trouble to do that. If you're going to challenge my conclusion, the least you could do is actually look at my method and point out where it has a relevant flaw.

Second, in your own example, you have chosen a very poor way to illustrate the two teams. If you are going to represent Pirates as a slice of the pie, with the outside (the "crust," if you will) being the good players, then in your full pie that represents Ninjas, you should also let the "crust" of that full pie represent the good players. That would make it far easier to see what happens when you spin the Pirate slice around the pie. (Spoiler alert: It would be perfectly even matchups all around, dooming your theory.) But instead, you chose to represent the skilled Ninja players as another slice of the pie, needlessly complicating matters. And from that mistake springs another flaw...

You have not shown that the slice of good Ninja players is the same proportion of the whole pie as the "crust" of good Pirate players is of the entire slice that represents Pirate players. For all I know just looking at your drawing, you could have underestimated the size of the slice that you needed to properly represent Team Ninja, making it so that Team Pirate actually has a greater proportion of skilled players.

But actually, it's even worse than that, because, without going to the trouble of employing Calculus techniques to precisely calculate everything, I can't even be certain that you didn't overestimate the size of the slice for skilled Ninja players. The problem is that you have grossly oversimplified your analysis, with this summary of "Pirates win" and "Ninjas can win." What actually happens is that, as you spin the full Pirate slice into the slice of skilled Ninja Players, the win rate varies according to how much overlap there is. Depending on the overlap, the win rate for Ninjas could be 40%, 80%, 50.5%, 50.00003%... There are an infinite number of distinct possibilities. You would need to rely on Calculus to accurately assess the results, not this simplistic and vague "Pirates win" and "Ninjas can win."

But, of course, you wouldn't have needed to use Calculus in the first place if you had just chosen a better drawing--one that was easier to analyze correctly... Really, I think that if you had actually read and understood my analysis, you wouldn't have reached such an erroneous conclusion in the first place.



Bottom line: Pirates won more because they had a greater proportion of skilled players, not because of some quirk of the matchmaking process.

 

[PrinceOfKoopas]

(I'm enjoying this discussion.)

 

[aceofscarabs]

There is also the danger that a skilled Ninja team trying to stick together would suffer from dilution as members drop out and are replaced by lesser players, and given the sheer size of the teampool, the risk of getting unskilled replacements is dramatically higher.