Third parties will make NX games if the NX is profitable for them.
True enough, but it's a catch-22, and it'll be harder this gen than last gen to get them on board. Costs of development are skyrocketing, staff sizes and project time as well. Every studio wants to support as many platforms as possible as easy as possible, so the answer was obvious: If EVERY platform is merely an x86 PC, then they really only need to build a PC version and accommodate only minor API differences between each other platform. Nintendo thought that since WiiU had appropriate power for 3rd party games, they 3rd parties would support it (and they said they would...but that was back when X360 was also PPC and before the x86 PS4/XBO twins released.) Supporting WIiU meant a total architecture rewrite of the game JUST to support Nintendo. And even then without spending tons of times on that it was never going to be amazing.
Getting proper Western 3rd party support requires one of two things. NX needs to either be x86 architecture like the others, but then it would need to be a fairly power hungry heat throwing machine like the other two as well. -OR- the NX needs to sell like the Wii (a near impossible sell for the niche gaming company to sell another console that sells like the exercise fad the Wii was) - with a huge 100+mil install base, 3rd parties will have no choice but to spend a fortune on custom ports if they don't want to miss that audience.
BUT - it's more complicated. Getting 3rd parties what they want and getting games to sell are two different things. The old axiom in Ninty circles that Nintendo gamers only buy Nintendo games is fairly true. If I were a project lead at EA, lets say for a new Dead Space game, deciding if I was going to spend the R&D money, EVEN IF NX is just an x86 PS4 clone, would I spend the time and money on the Nintendo platform? I know my audience that already likes my games is already loyal to Sony/MS/PC, they're already there. They really have little reason to leave the platforms they like. That audience was built in the PS2 era. And on those platforms, my competition will be Watchdogs, and Fallout, and Skyrim remastered. I can handle that, my audience is very targeted. But if I jump onto Nintendo, I'm gaining an audience that already rejected my type of games for Nintendo's type of games. Not many of them will be too interested, of of the ones that are, they probably already have an XB1/PS4/PC to play games like mine on - I'd get them anyway. But worse, right now I'm not on Nintendo, so I don't have to compete DIRECTLY against Nintendo for their customers. If I go Nintendo, I have longer dev times, longer costs, another certification to be approved on, AND come release day I end up competing DIRECTLY against Zelda and Metroid, a contest I'm certain to lose. So WHY would I put my games on a platform on which the only publisher bigger than myself has a near-monopoly on it's audience by owning the platform itself?
Problem 3 is Sony/MS PAY publishers to bring their games over. They will pick AAA projects to contribute funding to to secure it on their platform. Big money, basically as an investment. Those platforms were built to be low cost PCs for gaming dedicated to the multiplat. The publishers have learned to rely on this funding model, and expect it. That's a game Nintendo won't play. They have their own games to fund. No funding, no game, unless the console is Wii-level success. And equivalent power.
That's the real problem Nintendo has with 3rd parties. The architecture presents big problems, yes, but even if they just bought PS4's and painted a red "Nintendo" logo on the side and put them in a box with Mario's picture on them, 3rd parties are hesitant to open up to a platform with historically low results for them and opens them to crushing competition from the platform holder they just PAID to be on.
A few games here and there like CoD would support it if it's x86 or has a big enough install base, but it wouldn't be a multiplat haven. PS4/XBO were built specifically for running multiplats and have a funding model to secure them. Plus they pay the consumer to buy the product, drawing initial funds from other divisions to sell hardware at a loss. Nintendo doesn't have that luxury, they can't sell hardware at a deep loss.
So it's a lot more complicated than "if it's profitable" because architecture and install base are only two big factors in profitability - there's also the market they end up competing in. Lets face it, most Nintendo gamers buy Nintendo instead of the other two because they like the kind of games on Nintendo more than the other two. Those of us that like both, buy both. I happen to like Deus Ex (granted it was eventually on WiiU so not the best example), but Mankind Divided won't be. I do have a PS4 because I like some multiplat franchises. They'll get me to buy their game whether they go through the Nintendo hoops or not. I think Iwata had the right idea with the Wii, billing it as a "second console". Wii is depressing no matter what, but the idea was right. Nintendo has a very different market from the other two, and it NEEDS to have a very different market. It would never survive just competing in the same market. Wii & WiiU may be a low point, but Ninty hasn't genuinely competed in that market since the SNES. Yamauchi's decisions on N64 started it, though really it was the deal with Sony falling through that really set the current events in motion. Wii just hit a pinnacle of them being forced to a different market, taking their ball, and going home by being RADICALLY different. WiiU was an experiment in returning to compete against Sony without understanding where Sony was going.
There's HOPE for 3rd parties, but I wouldn't expect them. Nor would I expect Nintendo to try to cater to them again. They tried with WiiU and it blew up in their faces. They WANT 3rd parties, but they're more interested in Japanese 3rd parties, and keeping within their unique "this isn't going up against Sony/MS" market. Besides, who really wants a 3rd PS clone when we could get something different?
It'll be utter ****, and it will fail horribly and kill Nintendo forever.
At least, that seems to be the general consensus I've seen elsewhere. I don't know if it's out of genuine distaste for Nintendo, or if people are jumping to these conclusions because we've heard zilch about it. It's kinda sad, really. You'd expect new console hype to be mostly, well, hype for the the new console (or at least "cautious optimism", whatever the hell that means), not a bunch of doom & gloom.
I don't know if I'll get it right away, but I'll be damned if I'm gonna miss out on Pikmin 4 and NSMBNX.
LOL, welcome to the Internet, where hype comes in the form of complaining, whining, and doomsaying, ESPECIALLY if you once read something sucks and haven't even seen it yourself. :p I think after the Wii's complete disregard for actual gamers, and WiiU's drought filled implosion (Note: WiiU actually turned a profit, and thus is not a 'failure' but damaged the brand) gamers are just jaded. Plus conflicting ideas from rumor mills and Nintendo itself and a growing internet dislike for Miyamoto and his fixation on kids (as though we weren't all kids when he first made fans of US with his same fixation on kids). So far on the internet "If it's not as powerful as
PS4 Scorpio it will fail" Which is just internet idiot thinking from the unimaginative. Most people think of head-on attacks. "PSXBox has the audience with shooters and graphics, so if Nintendo does the same thing, THEY'LL get the audience with shooters and graphics. It omits the reality: Why would any of the 40 Million people with a PS4 now play their favorite games on an NX instead, when all those games will be coming to the PS4 they already have along with Sony's exclusives that most likely appeal to that player more than Mario, in exchange for a brand name that isn't even considered "cool"? They won't. A powerhouse me-too box would be the guaranteed failure. Ninty has to do different, even if they didn't want to.
My only real fear for it is if they are really trying to capture the Wii fad all over again by building a "mass market, consumer friendly, multi-purpose" device trying to make it a fitness fad, or something again to guarantee the 100m+ sales again. It won't work. That was the right product at the right time, during a transition in technology. It spoke to a group that no longer can be spoken to, really. THAT would fail as hard as the me-too box. Or worse. They need to return to the Gameboy/DS roots: Make it affordable, and portable, and economical to develop for, and it will sell. It won't be running Fallout 5 if they do that. That's OK, Gameboy didn't run Mario 3. Tetris sold it just fine.
I voted yes for one simple reason: I am a Nintendo fan. Super Mario Bros. 3 was the first video game I ever played at 5 years old, and 20 years later I still think of it as one of my all-time favorite games. Everything I know about that game started by being passed down to me by my mom.
20 years later and I still find Nintendo to be the only gaming company I can wholeheartedly support. Recently, yes, their business decisions have been rather questionable, and a lot of people criticize how Nintendo's games are more suited for kids than for both kids and adults, and to an extent they're right. But I can't be the only twenty-something on this site playing a game rated E10+. Let's be honest, this is Nintendo's first original game since Pikmin launched in 2001; people keep saying Nintendo is going the way of the dodo, but Splatoon has proven that there's still plenty of tricks up Nintendo's sleeve. Look at how even in this thread people are talking in curious tones about what we might be seeing in eight months when the NX is launched. Nobody I know is having the same reaction to an Xbox successor, or a PS5.
Nintendo has been changing the game since the beginning.
It revived a video game market that was on its deathbed in the U.S. with the NES.
It created a fierce rivalry with the SNES, a rivalry that is still referred to even today.
It was one of the ambassadors of 3D gaming with the N64.
It perfected a fighting game on the Gamecube that, even 15 years later, is still played at major gaming tournaments across the globe.
Motion controls in games? Thank the Wii for popularizing that trend.
And this is just the home consoles. They popularized, if not invented, the handheld console market.
Maybe this isn't the answer anyone is looking for, but to me, Nintendo will be my #1 gaming company until the day I die.
As for those who think the NX will tank, or that Nintendo is finished, I have one thing to say to you:
"Leave luck to heaven."
All so true. I really don't think Nintendo games cater to kids more than adults. That's just a cultural lens people view it through. It has cute cartoon graphics and is immediately assumed to be for kids. Similarly. Tolkein's masterpiece of LotR was chided as a children's book even by his fellow Oxford colleagues and accepted that way mostly everywhere. The idea was anything with fantastical elements was clearly for children and not the place of adults. Of course, the whole novel is a social, societal, and political commentary about the industrialization of England - not even slightly for children. I suspect the realization of that spurred his detractors to scream even louder that it was for children, to discredit it.
Similarly, Nintendo games are adorably cute on the surface and deviously frustrating down deeper. The grand master of that being Pokemon. The cute simple game oh so much for children to share pokemons in the schoolyard. Meanwhile, it's a monstrous depth RPG where adults that ignore the stigma play with deep spreadsheets and probability charts. The whole things a statistics & probability puzzle. You know...like the stock market. :p
Other Nintendo games, cute as they are in 1-1, have you screaming 4 letter words non-stop by 5-5. I haven't seen many "push A to win" games on PSXbox that can be quite so infuriatingly difficult as even the adorable Wooly World.
We're somehow still stuck in "Sega does what Nintendon't" - it's about brand coolness, following what's adult's are supposed to like based on visuals, while ignoring the deeper game systems that are usually significantly more complex than competitors. To be fair, Sony does have a fair number of Japanese games localized that would be at home on a Nintendo platform. MS really does not. But the Sony ones tend to be VERY anime-Japan-weeb-bait. It can't grab just anybody and pull them in.
In the West, "family friendly" doesn't sell anymore. Yet Nintendo can't compete as the "edgy" brand either.
All in all, NX faces struggles to be a success....BUT I think if you're a Nintendo gamer, it will be great regardless of it's success. Heck, the WiiU is great regardless. it hasn't had enough games but the ones it got have been largely excellent, with Splatoon being so good it caused me to have a backlog on a console with no games :p
I'm primarily going off of what i'm hearing online for the most part. People are skeptical about it and I can't place why, but the main thing keeping me from being really hyped about the NX is my lack of a steady income to support me having enough money to get it (though i'm bound to get a stable job before it's release) and the fact I'm not sure if any games I need are coming out for it. Even if Spla2n comes out I probably won't get it until an AC game or a new Kirby game comes out for it. I also am going to be offput from it if it doesn't have the gamepad (without the motion controls, please) since I enjoy the offscreen play feature.
I guess I'm also worried about how many people are saying it's gonna be garbage too, considering how many of them there are.
Because it's the internet which is filled with people that feel good about themselves by bashing uncool things, and tech snobs who sneer at the irrelevance of anything but the most superior tech (yet Apple somehow gets a pass despite their stuff always being as obsolete at launch as Nintendo's) :p
Oh it better have motion controls (actually Ubisoft confirmed, accidentally, it does in the Just Dance e3 announcement: "Releasing on all motion control platforms including Nintendo Wii, WiiU Oct 2016, and NX in 2017." Splatoon has spoiled me in the extreme with those motion controls. You don't realize how much you use them until the other day I picked up Deus Ex to show someone, and felt like I was fighting the game. I could hardly control it. I was playing with Mirror's Edge: Catalyst on PS4 the other day and felt like throwing the controller across the room. It's a game based on fluid motion, like Splatoon, and the controls are anything but fluid. After Splatoon's motion controls, I'm afraid I might not even be able to play first person and close-camera 3rd person games without them anymore! :( I'm ruined! :p Sadly Nintendo redefined the console shooter's controls and the industry didn't even pay attention.
IF it's the Hybrid idea (either 2 systems or 1 system) we'll get our off-tv. I'm hoping for that as well! I'd truly be shocked if it was not the hybrid idea. Even if it's 2 machines that play the same games, even if the handheld releases a year later. Honestly if it has that feature, if the library is deep, it could end up becoming my favorite platform of all time. I'd be in awe if Nintendo managed to best my "best platform" status from the SNES to the 3DS after all these years and then hit new heights for me in the very next generation. I still have a soft spot for SNES...but objectively it's hard to say it's better than 3DS considering the best SNES games are ALSO on 3DS.
I don't put much stock in the "Nintendoomed" naysayers. They've been at it for a long time. Nintendo has been "doomed" since the NES came out.

It's amusing the internet has decided that a product they know absolutely nothing about, and don't even know what form factor it will have, is a guaranteed failure :p
If I recall, according to the internet, both pre-and post-announcement the iPad was also doomed. ;) And that's the Internet's most BELOVED tech company!
(Edit: Sometimes I really hate the double post policy:( This post didn't need to be a monolithic text wall and was 3 replies to 3 conversations...but I had to do it as one. sorry everyone!)