n response to your first question, my answer is the following: there wouldn't be any actual incentive to join the team with the subject that you truly prefer unless it is the one that gives you a greater chance of winning by it being the less popular one. In Splatfests, you're supposed to choose the team that you like the most and its popularity is factored into the final score, so it certainly was partially a ballot. The amount of wins were always given a greater weight, but not as much as it is now. As it is now for the North America Splatfests, being on the popular team puts you at a clear disadvantage.
I think there's two big misunderstandings in that reasoning. The first is being on the less popular team does NOT in any way increase your chance of winning. Nor do you know what team is least popular when you vote. I think that's the central point that's getting lost any time this topic comes up. The less popular team is not advantaged, it does not have higher odds of winning, and it is not actually known which is the less popular team until the splatfest has concluded. I'm not singling you out on that, there's a lot of people that seem to be doing the same thing: Looking at the symptom and believing it to be the cause.
There is no advantage or disadvantage to being on the popular or unpopular team. The problem is not at all related to which team is more popular. The problem is that the internet community of skilled players has formed the opinion that the less popular team will win, and therefore get together before each splatfest, place their bets on which team is probably going to be less popular, and therefore all sign up for that team, so that one team, the team that is less popular, has the concentration of most of the best players, including the bulk of the S, S+, and competitive scene players. The other team has the bulk of the people that are not any of the above so you end up with Team A loaded with most of Splatoon's skillbase in NoA territory, and Team B loaded with the lack-of-skillbase. Doesn't matter which is more popular. It's the fact that the skilled players all choose one team instead of the other every time that's the real cause. It wouldn't matter which team they all chose, that one would be most likely to win. The upset in Autobots (and Cats) simply defined a criteria which would be used to pick which team those players would all herd into.
However the important point here is that it does not actually have anything to do with one team actually being less popular. It's only the internet deciding which team to sign up for that actually secures that result. If the internet community of good players decided "the popular team always wins" and all signed up for that team, it would be the popular team winning each time.
Alternately, if the internet bet gets it wrong, and votes for a team, believing it will be the unpopular team, but it turned out to be the popular team, the popular team will win.
Now there is one way in which this is an attempt to influence results. By deciding on joining the less popular team as a collective of skilled players, it means those skilled players will play a greater percentage of the rounds than lesser skilled players since they will make up a greater percentage of the total player base of that team. They're effectively making a concerted effort to stack the roster with an all star team on the team with the smaller roster, however I haven't seen evidence that that factor has actually even been considered by the fanbase as a factor. I don't think they're into Game Theory (gambling, not video games - the deep math stuff) enough to actually take that level of detail of how to stack the deck into consideration. They're Splatoon players, not "the boys down at the docks."
However, they do not KNOW which team actually has the smaller roster, they're making a bet and psychoanalyzing the personalities attracted to either team. They're taking a gamble on which team that is, not an informed statistic. Granted, this is a game that tells you to go talk to the addict in the back alley to trade living creatures for the purpose of killing them in exchange for a slot machine pull to gamble your abilities who can also "acquire" gear you "order" from him, so it's probably fair to assume the good players might be skilled at gambling, but still... it's a gamble, not a choice.
The second misunderstanding is that the ballot was ever meant to factor into the score.
If they didn't want popularity to have any slightly significant role in Splatfests, then they shouldn't have designed the rules of Splatfests to be the way that they were and are. Also, the spectators in a baseball match and the players in Splatoon who choose their favorite Splatfest team are clearly dissimilar; in the latter, the players tend to be actively participating in Splatfests by trying to win Turf War Matches.
oM&M used the spectators analogy for soccer. My analogy was with baseball teams who had more players that wanted to sign up with them. The analogy only half applies, but the fact is Team B did not have MORE players on the field at a time. There's no advantage to offset there. They had more people available on the bench to play any given round (and some had to sit out), while Team A had less people on the bench, so the same people were more likely to play multiple rounds, while Team B had more bench warmers (Future playing Future. Though I did have one Past v Past round.) You can't add points to a team because they had more people on the bench. You can only award points for games played, which is always equal.
If you start augmenting wins by applying heavy weights to team popularity, then you just reverse the problem: The popular team always wins. It didn't fix anything. Then it's not really a competition anymore, just a vote. Nintendo has made it very clear by steadily increasing the multiplier that their intention is for popularity and ballot NOT to count unless it's in the most extreme of tie breaking situations. And they've made it clear that the tie they'd most be interested in breaking is the influence of popularity so that even a 1% win can massively offset popularity differences. They've done all they can to prevent popularity from having much pull at all, so I'm not sure it's fair to say they wanted popularity to be significant when the evidence numerically states otherwise.
I'm not saying the current situation is good, I'm just saying that the analysis tends to have the situation backward, and that any means presented of fixing it is likely to make it worse or do nothing at all. The root of the problem has nothing to do with the teams and is more related to internet groupthink which the game can not address.
If you want it to be totally "fair" there should be no vote, there should be two color choices and players should be randomly assigned one or the other 50/50. No cause, no topic, just a battle of two randomly selected teams. No popularity factor. Then it would be a totally fair test of two teams. But then we'd all be griping about how the RNG is rigged and favors the S players to get more snails on the left-side team. And if you let players VOTE on if they're Team Purple or Team Yellow, then we're back to the internet groups players all choosing to side with one or the other and stuffing it with all stars again.
Even if we're going to propose theoretical fixes to the issue knowing they'll never happen (as some of us love doing with the atrocious ranked scoring system... ;)) we have to start with a proper understanding of what the actual issue is - which is not "Team Callie/Less Popular Wins", nor is it "The vote was supposed to have weight."
My reasoning for why the multiplier should be lowered back to 2x is based mainly on how the score is calculated. Hypothetically, if Team A with 55% popularity lost to Team B with a 51% win rate because of the 6x multiplier, do you think that Team A should have lost or "deserved" to lose? For all that we would know, the win rates could have been moderately close, but the win rate was rounded in Team B's favor. I haven't seen the win percentage for both teams in any Splatfest be 50% yet. Also, I doubt that the difference in any future teams' popularity will be as large as the difference between Team Pirates and Team Ninjas' popularity. Assuming that the popularity difference between any pair of teams doesn't become larger than that and the same multiplier is used, then a team needs only a 54% win rate in order to guarantee getting more points than the other. In the latest Splatfest, Team Past vs Team Future, Team Past needed only 52% of the wins in order to overcome the 39%/61% popularity difference. My argument is that it is too easy to overcome moderately large differences in popularity whenever the more popular team doesn't have a higher win rate, which has been the case in all but one of the NA Splatfests.
But the question still remains: Why should a team be allowed to win a bigger prize for losing more games, just because they had more players that wanted to play on their team?
Let's assume Team A has 600 players, Team B has 400 players - 60%/40%. We'll assume 15,000 rounds were played in 24 hours (a theoretical ~6 times an hour for 24 hours where all of the smallest team was engaged in battles with 4 player teams.) Team B won 7650 (51%) Team A won 7350 (49%) Team A lost 300 more games than Team B. Given the 4v4 profile, assuming the teams played full rosters 6 times an hour for all 24 hours, that implies each player in Team A played ~6.25 games that splatfest, while each player in Team B palayed ~9.3 games in that splatfest.
So each player on Team B individually played more games against a greater variety of players on Team A than any individual on Team A, and won more of those games against a broader range of opponents. They individually played more rounds, and played them better. The methodology behind putting more weight behind popularity specifically states that the team consisting of individuals who played more games more skillfully should LOSE because the other team had more individuals who played fewer games and played them worse.
That sounds like a TERRIBLE scoring system!
...and yet, with the current x6 multiplier, that's exactly what would happen! 354-346, victory to the popular team. The unpopular team would have had to have had 52% wins to win even with the x6 multiplier, meaning they'd have to have the same individuals win an even greater percentage of games than they already did to actually win! The above scenario makes x6 look too frivolous. Make it x8!
:D
The problem we have in NA is that collectively online most of the skilled players all agree BEFORE the Splatfest to all join the one team. So we'll take our fake numbers and say there's 350 great skilled players in the online Splatoon community participating in this splatfest. 300 of them follow each other to the same team. 50 go the other way.
So with current NA logic, Team B consists of 300 great players and 100 mixed bag against 550 mixed bag players and 50 great ones. And each of those great players play 9.3 rounds a piece compared to any of Team A's 6.25 rounds a piece. So the skillful individuals played more games, individually than the mixed bag players on Team A.
But if the Oracle of the Internet put the skilled players in Team A, Team A would consist of 50% great players and 50% mixed bag, while Team B would consist of 350 mixed bags and 50 great players. Statistically divided evenly any given match would still consist of a Team A that had 2 great players and 2 mixed bags, and a Team B with zero or 1 great player and 3-4 mixed bags. The advantage would strongly favor Team A (the popular team) because that's where the internet said to go.
The popularity, nor the ignoring of popularity due to 6x isn't the issue at all. It just looks that way if you glance at the effect.
Edit: Keep in mind the numbers are heavily rounded and statistically impossible to have that many players playing 24 hours straight ;)